Slovak Extraliga

Nitra vs Poprad prediction

Nitra6–6–1 · Home Poprad10–2–1 · Away07:00 PMOct 24

55%win chance incl. overtime45%

Our pick

55%NIT55%NIT

Nitra to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.81 · projected 3–2

Nitra are the pick at 55% to win, with a projected 3–2 scoreline against Poprad.

After 60 minutes

NITNitra in 60'

44%

Tied → OTTied → OT

21%

POPPoprad in 60'

35%

Game flow

NIT 2.9 · POP 2.8 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.9–0.8

P2 · 1.0–0.9

P3 · 0.9–1.0

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Nitra55%1.81
Regulation result (60 minutes)Nitra44%2.29
Puck linePoprad +1.570%1.44
Total goalsOver 5.550%1.99
Both teams to scoreYes87%1.15

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Nitra

55%fair 1.81

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Nitra

44%fair 2.29

Puck line

Poprad +1.5

70%fair 1.44

Total goals

Over 5.5

50%fair 1.99

Both teams to score

Yes

87%fair 1.15

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

A. TuranskyNIT · 5 G in 7 GP · 7 GP5530%3.38
P. BjaloncikPOP · 8 G in 13 GP · 13 GP8629%3.43
A. DvorakPOP · 8 G in 12 GP · 12 GP8429%3.49
A. CracknellPOP · 7 G in 13 GP · 13 GP7926%3.85
R. JacksonNIT · 6 G in 13 GP · 13 GP6426%3.91
M. PaulovicNIT · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4322%4.58
A. CalofPOP · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5722%4.63
M. KristofNIT · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4119%5.23
B. PollockNIT · 2 G in 5 GP · 5 GP2718%5.51
J. UrbanekPOP · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4517%5.75

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Nitra vs Poprad?

Nitra are the pick at 55% to win, with a projected 3–2 scoreline against Poprad.

Nitra come into this home game with four wins in their last five, scoring 3.6 and allowing 1.8 goals a game over that stretch. Poprad have been better still, winning all five of their recent games while scoring 3.6 and giving up just 1.2. The form lines are close on offense, but Poprad's defensive record in that run sets them apart. The table tells the same story: Poprad sit 1st and Nitra sit 9th.

Once the opponents faced are accounted for, the gap widens. Nitra rate +0.03 goals per game against an average team, while Poprad rate +0.40, an edge of 0.36 goals to Poprad. Home ice is worth about 0.46 goals a game in this league, which is roughly enough to close that gap and slightly more, and that is the main reason Nitra carry the edge in the model. In regulation Nitra win inside 60 minutes 44% of the time, with a 21% chance of a tie after three periods that goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

The head-to-head is thin: one recent meeting, and Poprad took it, the latest finishing Poprad 5–2 Nitra on 2026-09-20. That single result sits awkwardly against the table and the ratings, and it does not shift the overall picture much. The market has reached a similar conclusion to the model, pricing Nitra at 57% on the moneyline across 9 bookmakers once the margin is removed. That is close to the model's 55%, so both the numbers and the market see a near coin flip rather than a clear favourite.

With a projected score of 3–2, the model expects a one-goal game, which is why Nitra −1.5 on the puck line comes in only 30% of the time on our numbers. The projected 5.8 goals sit just above the 5.5 line, and the over lands 50% — effectively a split call. Neither side of the puck line or the total offers a strong edge at these prices.

Take Nitra to win, overtime and shootout included, at 55%, with a projected score of 3–2.