ICE Hockey League

Ferencváros vs Graz99ers prediction

Ferencváros5–5–1 · Home Graz99ers7–4–2 · Away06:30 PMOct 28

52%win chance incl. overtime48%

Our pick

52%FER52%FER

Ferencváros to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.93 · projected 3–2

Ferencváros are the pick at home against Graz99ers: a 52% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

FERFerencváros in 60'

42%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

GRAGraz99ers in 60'

38%

Game flow

FER 3.0 · GRA 2.8 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.9–1.1

P2 · 1.1–0.8

P3 · 0.9–0.9

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Ferencváros52%1.93
Regulation result (60 minutes)Ferencváros42%2.39
Puck lineGraz99ers +1.573%1.36
Total goalsOver 5.552%1.92
Both teams to scoreYes90%1.12

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Ferencváros

52%fair 1.93

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Ferencváros

42%fair 2.39

Puck line

Graz99ers +1.5

73%fair 1.36

Total goals

Over 5.5

52%fair 1.92

Both teams to score

Yes

90%fair 1.12

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

C. SavoieFER · 8 G in 12 GP · 12 GP8636%2.75
P. HuberGRA · 7 G in 13 GP · 13 GP7730%3.31
N. SwaneyGRA · 7 G in 13 GP · 13 GP7428%3.59
C. HanusGRA · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4523%4.42
J. LippitschGRA · 3 G in 6 GP · 6 GP3221%4.69
D. SilyeFER · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4321%4.76
A. KestilaFER · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4321%4.86
C. CollinsGRA · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3319%5.27
R. HeljankoFER · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3318%5.56
J. TammelaFER · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3017%6.00

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Ferencváros vs Graz99ers?

Ferencváros are the pick at home against Graz99ers: a 52% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

Ferencváros have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.2 and allowing 3.4 goals a game over that stretch. Graz99ers have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.4 and allowing 3.2 goals a game over that stretch.

Ferencváros sit 12th, while Graz99ers sit 7th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Ferencváros rate −0.21 and Graz99ers −0.06 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.15 goals to Graz99ers. Home ice is worth about 0.27 goals a game in this league.

About 20% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Ferencváros win it in regulation only 42% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 52%.

Our own lines for this game: Ferencváros −1.5 on the puck line (27%) and 5.5 total goals, with the over at 52% (6 projected).

Ferencváros to win, overtime and shootout included (52%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.