ICE Hockey League

Graz99ers vs Black Wings Linz prediction

Graz99ers7–3–2 · Home Black Wings Linz9–3–1 · Away06:30 PMOct 23

60%win chance incl. overtime40%

Our pick

60%GRA60%GRA

Graz99ers to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.67 · projected 3–2

Graz99ers are 60% favourites at home against Black Wings Linz, with the model projecting a 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

GRAGraz99ers in 60'

48%

Tied → OTTied → OT

21%

BLABlack Wings Linz in 60'

31%

Game flow

GRA 2.9 · BLA 2.9 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.8–0.9

P2 · 0.9–1.2

P3 · 1.2–0.9

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Graz99ers60%1.67
Regulation result (60 minutes)Graz99ers48%2.07
Puck lineBlack Wings Linz +1.566%1.52
Total goalsOver 5.551%1.95
Both teams to scoreYes87%1.14

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Graz99ers

60%fair 1.67

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Graz99ers

48%fair 2.07

Puck line

Black Wings Linz +1.5

66%fair 1.52

Total goals

Over 5.5

51%fair 1.95

Both teams to score

Yes

87%fair 1.14

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

B. ShawBLA · 10 G in 11 GP · 11 GP10736%2.75
N. SwaneyGRA · 7 G in 12 GP · 12 GP7430%3.38
G. KnottBLA · 7 G in 11 GP · 11 GP7829%3.49
P. HuberGRA · 6 G in 12 GP · 12 GP6828%3.58
J. LippitschGRA · 3 G in 5 GP · 5 GP3323%4.36
C. CollinsGRA · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3320%4.95
C. HanusGRA · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3519%5.15
O. MaierBLA · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3419%5.17
T. BlissBLA · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4418%5.61
E. RomigBLA · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4118%5.71

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Graz99ers vs Black Wings Linz?

Graz99ers are 60% favourites at home against Black Wings Linz, with the model projecting a 3–2 final.

Graz99ers hold a 60% chance of winning this one, overtime and shootout included, and the model's projected scoreline is 3–2. That edge comes despite Black Wings Linz sitting 2nd in the table while Graz99ers are 6th, so home ice and recent form are doing real work in the numbers. The market has reached a similar view, pricing Graz99ers at 64% on the moneyline once the bookmaker margin is removed across 9 bookmakers.

Both teams arrive in strong form: Graz99ers have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 3.6 and allowing 2.2 goals a game over that stretch, while Black Wings Linz have also won 4 of their last 5, scoring 3.8 and allowing 1.8. On raw recent output the visitors look the sharper side at both ends. Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, though, the ratings tell a different story from the table: Graz99ers rate +0.03 and Black Wings Linz +0.42 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.39 goals to Black Wings Linz.

That ratings gap is largely offset by home ice, which is worth about 0.37 goals a game in this league, and it explains why the model still leans to Graz99ers rather than the higher-ranked visitors. Inside regulation the model gives Graz99ers 48% to win in 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 21%, with a tie going to overtime and, if needed, a shootout. The recent head-to-head is a single meeting, and it went Black Wings Linz's way: the latest finished Black Wings Linz 3–2 Graz99ers on 2026-10-02.

So the case for the underdog is real: Black Wings Linz have the better table position, the better opponent-adjusted rating and the only recent result between the teams. Graz99ers' case rests on home ice and a market that has settled close to the model, with the moneyline pricing them at 64% against the model's 60%. The small gap between those two figures suggests little disagreement about who wins, only about how comfortably.

With a projected 3–2 final, Graz99ers −1.5 on the puck line comes in 34% of the time on our numbers, so the model expects this to stay a one-goal game more often than not. The over 5.5 goals lands 51% against a projected 6 goals, a near coin-flip that reflects two teams scoring 3.6 and 3.8 goals a game over their last 5.

Graz99ers to win, overtime and shootout included (60%). Projected score: 3–2.