ICE Hockey League

Vorarlberg vs Bolzano prediction

Vorarlberg0–12–1 · Home Bolzano9–1–2 · Away05:30 PM UTCOct 23

23%win chance incl. overtime77%

Our pick

77%BOL77%BOL

Bolzano to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.30 · projected 2–3

Bolzano are the pick on the road against Vorarlberg, with a 77% chance to win including overtime and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

VORVorarlberg in 60'

17%

Tied → OTTied → OT

16%

BOLBolzano in 60'

67%

Game flow

VOR 2.5 · BOL 3.6 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.6–1.3

P2 · 1.0–1.3

P3 · 0.9–1.1

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Bolzano77%1.30
Regulation result (60 minutes)Bolzano67%1.48
Puck lineVorarlberg +2.558%1.73
Total goalsUnder 6.553%1.89
Both teams to scoreYes86%1.16

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Bolzano

77%fair 1.30

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Bolzano

67%fair 1.48

Puck line

Vorarlberg +2.5

58%fair 1.73

Total goals

Under 6.5

53%fair 1.89

Both teams to score

Yes

86%fair 1.16

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

B. McClureBOL · 9 G in 12 GP · 12 GP9436%2.78
D. MantenutoBOL · 6 G in 9 GP · 9 GP6434%2.97
I. RatcliffeBOL · 7 G in 11 GP · 11 GP7633%3.01
G. van NesVOR · 6 G in 13 GP · 13 GP6325%4.02
B. MurrayVOR · 5 G in 13 GP · 13 GP5425%4.04
T. ElsonBOL · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5424%4.13
N. SerdachnyVOR · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4119%5.17
B. SummerVOR · 2 G in 7 GP · 7 GP2218%5.46
M. BradleyBOL · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3418%5.50
J. SeppalaVOR · 2 G in 11 GP · 11 GP2114%7.07

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Vorarlberg vs Bolzano?

Bolzano are the pick on the road against Vorarlberg, with a 77% chance to win including overtime and a projected 3–2 score.

Bolzano arrive as the league's top side and the clear favourite against a Vorarlberg team sitting 14th. The gap in the table is backed up by the underlying numbers: once opponents are adjusted for, Bolzano rate +0.66 goals per game against an average team while Vorarlberg sit at −0.76, an edge of 1.42 goals to the visitors. Home ice hands some of that back, worth about 0.37 goals a game in this league, but it does not come close to closing the difference.

Form points the same way. Vorarlberg have lost all of their last 5, scoring 2.2 and allowing 4.0 goals a game across that run, while Bolzano have taken 3 of their last 5 at 4.4 scored and 2.4 conceded. The contrast is stark at both ends of the ice: one side is struggling to generate offence and leaking goals, the other is scoring freely and keeping the back door largely shut.

The market sees it much the same way. Removing the bookmaker margin leaves Bolzano priced at 82% on the moneyline across 8 bookmakers, slightly stronger than our own 77%. The difference between the two figures is the overtime route: about 16% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Bolzano take it in regulation only 67% of the time on our numbers, with overtime and the shootout accounting for the rest.

The projected 3–2 scoreline says this should be closer on the board than the ratings and the table might suggest. Vorarlberg's home ice and a low-scoring script keep the margin tight even though Bolzano are the better team by a clear margin over the season and over the last 5 games. The pick stays with the visitors, but the model expects a one-goal game rather than a rout.

The projected 3–2 score puts the margin right on the edge of the puck line: Bolzano −2.5 comes in 42% of the time on our numbers, so the value sits with the underdog side of that line rather than the favourite. The total is a similarly tight call, with the under 6.5 goals landing 53% against a projected 6.3 goals, a thin but real lean to the lower side.

Bolzano to win, overtime and shootout included (77%). Projected score: 3–2.