ICE Hockey League

TWK Innsbruck vs Salzburg prediction

TWK Innsbruck6–7–0 · Home Salzburg5–6–1 · Away05:15 PM UTCOct 23

34%win chance incl. overtime66%

Our pick

66%SAL66%SAL

Salzburg to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.51 · projected 2–3

Salzburg are the pick at 66% to win, with a projected 3–2 scoreline against TWK Innsbruck.

After 60 minutes

TWKTWK Innsbruck in 60'

26%

Tied → OTTied → OT

19%

SALSalzburg in 60'

55%

Game flow

TWK 2.9 · SAL 2.8 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.2–1.0

P2 · 0.9–0.9

P3 · 0.9–0.9

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Salzburg66%1.51
Regulation result (60 minutes)Salzburg55%1.81
Puck lineTWK Innsbruck +1.558%1.73
Total goalsUnder 6.554%1.84
Both teams to scoreYes87%1.14

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Salzburg

66%fair 1.51

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Salzburg

55%fair 1.81

Puck line

TWK Innsbruck +1.5

58%fair 1.73

Total goals

Under 6.5

54%fair 1.84

Both teams to score

Yes

87%fair 1.14

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

P. SchneiderSAL · 10 G in 9 GP · 9 GP10543%2.34
S. OwreTWK · 6 G in 13 GP · 13 GP6530%3.28
S. BenkerTWK · 5 G in 13 GP · 13 GP5226%3.84
M. WittingTWK · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4324%4.13
M. HuberSAL · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4522%4.55
B. DavisTWK · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3421%4.84
N. NienhuisSAL · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3317%5.75
C. MayerTWK · 2 G in 12 GP · 12 GP2415%6.67
J. LeeSAL · 2 G in 10 GP · 10 GP2215%6.71
P. HochkoflerSAL · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2215%6.80

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win TWK Innsbruck vs Salzburg?

Salzburg are the pick at 66% to win, with a projected 3–2 scoreline against TWK Innsbruck.

Salzburg carry a modest edge into this one, and the model makes it count: 66% to win with overtime and a shootout included, and a 3–2 final as the most likely outcome. The two teams have identical recent records, three wins in their last five, so form alone does not separate them. What does separate them is scoring: Salzburg have put up 3.0 goals a game over that stretch while allowing 2.8, whereas TWK Innsbruck have managed 2.4 and conceded 3.2.

The table is tight too, with TWK Innsbruck 12th and Salzburg 10th, so neither side arrives with much cushion. Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, TWK Innsbruck rate −0.40 goals per game against an average team and Salzburg −0.18, a gap of 0.22 goals in Salzburg's favour. Home ice is worth about 0.37 goals a game in this league, which keeps TWK Innsbruck in the conversation despite the ratings.

In regulation the model gives Salzburg 55% to win inside 60 minutes and puts a tie after three periods at 19%, sending the game to overtime and, if needed, a shootout. The head-to-head is thin but favours the home side: the teams have met once recently, TWK Innsbruck winning that one, with the latest finishing Salzburg 2–3 TWK Innsbruck on 2026-09-23. The market has looked past that result, pricing Salzburg at 74% on the moneyline once the bookmaker margin is removed across 9 bookmakers, which is even more confident than the model's 66%.

So the case for Salzburg rests on the better adjusted goal difference and the stronger scoring rate, while TWK Innsbruck's argument is home ice and a recent win in this matchup. The model and the market point the same way, though they disagree on how much: the market is the more bullish of the two on the visitors.

The projected 5.9 goals sits below the 6.5 line, and the under lands 54% on our numbers. On the puck line, Salzburg −1.5 comes in 42% of the time, so a two-goal Salzburg win is a minority outcome even with the visitors favoured. That fits a 3–2 projection: Salzburg win, but the margin stays inside one and the game stays under the total.

Salzburg to win, overtime and shootout included, at 66%, with a projected score of 3–2.