ICE Hockey League

Villach vs TWK Innsbruck prediction

Villach5–4–3 · Home TWK Innsbruck6–8–0 · Away05:30 PMOct 25

61%win chance incl. overtime39%

Our pick

61%VIL61%VIL

Villach to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.63 · projected 3–2

Villach are the pick at 61% to beat TWK Innsbruck, with a projected score of 3–2.

After 60 minutes

VILVillach in 60'

51%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

TWKTWK Innsbruck in 60'

29%

Game flow

VIL 3.1 · TWK 2.4 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.0–0.8

P2 · 1.1–0.7

P3 · 1.0–0.9

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Villach61%1.63
Regulation result (60 minutes)Villach51%1.96
Puck lineTWK Innsbruck +1.566%1.53
Total goalsUnder 5.553%1.89
Both teams to scoreYes87%1.15

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Villach

61%fair 1.63

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Villach

51%fair 1.96

Puck line

TWK Innsbruck +1.5

66%fair 1.53

Total goals

Under 5.5

53%fair 1.89

Both teams to score

Yes

87%fair 1.15

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

E. WallentaVIL · 6 G in 12 GP · 12 GP6531%3.27
S. OwreTWK · 7 G in 14 GP · 14 GP7528%3.52
J. TeasdaleVIL · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5527%3.65
J. HughesVIL · 5 G in 10 GP · 10 GP5326%3.92
K. HancockVIL · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4724%4.11
R. SproulVIL · 3 G in 7 GP · 7 GP3621%4.68
S. BenkerTWK · 5 G in 14 GP · 14 GP5421%4.79
M. WittingTWK · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4219%5.17
C. MayerTWK · 3 G in 13 GP · 13 GP3416%6.07
B. DavisTWK · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3116%6.09

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Villach vs TWK Innsbruck?

Villach are the pick at 61% to beat TWK Innsbruck, with a projected score of 3–2.

Villach come into this home game with two wins from their last five, a stretch in which they have scored 2.8 and conceded 2.8 goals per game. TWK Innsbruck have matched that win total, also two from five, but their goals against column reads 3.8 per game against 2.0 scored, which is where the two recent records really diverge. The table adds weight to that gap: Villach sit 10th, TWK Innsbruck 13th.

The ratings sharpen the picture. Adjusted for the opponents each side has faced, Villach come out at −0.04 goals per game against an average team, while TWK Innsbruck sit at −0.46, an edge of 0.43 goals to Villach. Home ice is worth about 0.27 goals a game in this league, and that pushes the home side further ahead. The head-to-head offers TWK Innsbruck their only counterargument: the teams have met once recently, and the latest finished TWK Innsbruck 3–2 Villach on 2026-10-11.

The market has Villach as clear favourite, and the model agrees, though not without a caveat. About 20% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Villach win it in regulation only 51% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 61%. The projected score of 3–2 fits a game that is close on the board but tilted toward the home side.

The projected score of 3–2 implies 5 total goals, just under the 5.5 line, with the under at 53% (5.7 projected). On the puck line, Villach −1.5 is priced at 35%, so a one-goal margin is the more likely outcome than a cover.

Villach to win, overtime and shootout included, at 61%, with a projected score of 3–2.