ICE Hockey League

Black Wings Linz vs Ferencváros prediction

Black Wings Linz10–3–1 · Home Ferencváros5–5–1 · Away04:00 PMOct 25

65%win chance incl. overtime35%

Our pick

65%BLA65%BLA

Black Wings Linz to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.54 · projected 3–2

Black Wings Linz are 65% favourites at home against Ferencváros, overtime and shootout included, with a projected 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

BLABlack Wings Linz in 60'

55%

Tied → OTTied → OT

18%

FERFerencváros in 60'

27%

Game flow

BLA 3.5 · FER 2.6 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.2–0.8

P2 · 1.4–0.8

P3 · 1.0–1.0

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Black Wings Linz65%1.54
Regulation result (60 minutes)Black Wings Linz55%1.81
Puck lineFerencváros +1.561%1.65
Total goalsUnder 6.554%1.85
Both teams to scoreYes90%1.11

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Black Wings Linz

65%fair 1.54

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Black Wings Linz

55%fair 1.81

Puck line

Ferencváros +1.5

61%fair 1.65

Total goals

Under 6.5

54%fair 1.85

Both teams to score

Yes

90%fair 1.11

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

B. ShawBLA · 10 G in 12 GP · 12 GP10539%2.56
C. SavoieFER · 8 G in 11 GP · 11 GP8734%2.93
G. KnottBLA · 7 G in 12 GP · 12 GP7631%3.24
B. LeblerBLA · 6 G in 12 GP · 12 GP6629%3.42
O. MaierBLA · 3 G in 9 GP · 9 GP3521%4.81
D. SilyeFER · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4519%5.13
T. BlissBLA · 4 G in 14 GP · 14 GP4319%5.14
A. KestilaFER · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4319%5.24
R. HeljankoFER · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3317%6.01
J. TammelaFER · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3015%6.51

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Black Wings Linz vs Ferencváros?

Black Wings Linz are 65% favourites at home against Ferencváros, overtime and shootout included, with a projected 3–2 final.

Black Wings Linz come into this one as clear favourites, and the model's 65% price reflects more than home ice. The 2nd-placed side have won 4 of their last 5 while scoring 3.8 and allowing 1.8 goals a game, a two-way profile that Ferencváros have not matched. Ferencváros sit 11th and have won 3 of their last 5, but their 2.4 goals scored against 3.2 conceded tell a less stable story.

The ratings separate the teams further. Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Black Wings Linz rate +0.50 goals per game against an average team and Ferencváros −0.18, an edge of 0.69 goals to the home side before home ice is even counted. Home ice is worth about 0.30 goals a game in this league, which pushes the gap towards a full goal. That is the basis for the 3–2 projection rather than a wider margin.

The head-to-head is short but points the same way: the teams have met 1 time recently, Black Wings Linz winning that one, the latest finishing Ferencváros 3–5 Black Wings Linz on 2026-09-30. The market's view of the winner matches the model, with Black Wings Linz priced at 65% including overtime and shootout. About 18% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why the regulation-only figure is 56% and the rest of the 65% comes from the extra period and the shootout.

Ferencváros' case rests on the same numbers read differently: they have won 3 of their last 5, so they are not arriving in poor form, and a 3–2 projection leaves the game within one goal. The problem is the defensive record over that stretch, 3.2 goals allowed a game, against a Black Wings Linz attack scoring 3.8. The underdog needs the game to stay tight and low-scoring to have a real chance.

The projected 3–2 final sits just under the 6.5 total, and our under price is 54% against a 6.3 projected goals figure. On the puck line, Black Wings Linz −1.5 is priced at 40%, which fits a one-goal projection: the model expects a win, but not by two. The 65% moneyline figure including overtime and shootout is the cleaner expression of the favourite's edge, while the spread and the total both lean to the tighter, lower-scoring version of the game.

Black Wings Linz to win, overtime and shootout included, at 65%, with a projected score of 3–2.