ICE Hockey League

Olimpija Ljubljana vs Milano prediction

Olimpija Ljubljana8–5–0 · Home Milano6–6–2 · Away04:00 PMOct 25

62%win chance incl. overtime38%

Our pick

62%OLI62%OLI

Olimpija Ljubljana to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.61 · projected 3–2

Olimpija Ljubljana are the pick to beat Milano, with a 62% probability including overtime and the shootout, on a projected 3–2 scoreline.

After 60 minutes

OLIOlimpija Ljubljana in 60'

52%

Tied → OTTied → OT

18%

MILMilano in 60'

29%

Game flow

OLI 3.5 · MIL 2.7 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.7–0.7

P2 · 1.2–1.0

P3 · 1.6–1.0

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Olimpija Ljubljana62%1.61
Regulation result (60 minutes)Olimpija Ljubljana52%1.91
Puck lineMilano +1.563%1.58
Total goalsUnder 6.551%1.95
Both teams to scoreYes91%1.10

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Olimpija Ljubljana

62%fair 1.61

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Olimpija Ljubljana

52%fair 1.91

Puck line

Milano +1.5

63%fair 1.58

Total goals

Under 6.5

51%fair 1.95

Both teams to score

Yes

91%fair 1.10

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

J. LawrenceOLI · 11 G in 13 GP · 13 GP11540%2.51
N. MeyerOLI · 8 G in 13 GP · 13 GP8632%3.12
J. UrbasOLI · 7 G in 13 GP · 13 GP7329%3.42
Z. PanceOLI · 3 G in 5 GP · 5 GP3428%3.59
M. Dal ColleMIL · 6 G in 14 GP · 14 GP6625%3.94
N. CaamanoMIL · 6 G in 14 GP · 14 GP6225%4.06
A. GrantMIL · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4623%4.44
N. HalbertOLI · 3 G in 13 GP · 13 GP3317%5.84
D. KostnerMIL · 2 G in 7 GP · 7 GP2117%6.06
B. McLaughlinMIL · 4 G in 14 GP · 14 GP4016%6.27

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Olimpija Ljubljana vs Milano?

Olimpija Ljubljana are the pick to beat Milano, with a 62% probability including overtime and the shootout, on a projected 3–2 scoreline.

The model gives Olimpija Ljubljana a 62% chance of taking this one at home, with Milano left with the smaller share. That edge rests on more than the venue: adjusted for the opponents each side has faced, Olimpija Ljubljana come out at +0.45 goals per game against an average team and Milano at −0.02, a gap of 0.47 goals. Home ice, worth about 0.30 goals a game in this league, pushes the gap wider still.

Recent form points the same way. Olimpija Ljubljana have won 3 of their last 5 while scoring 3.4 and conceding 2.2 goals a game, whereas Milano have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 2.6 and allowing 3.4 over the same stretch. The table agrees with the form: Olimpija Ljubljana are 4th, Milano 8th.

Milano's case is not zero, and the projected 3–2 final shows how narrow the margin is. About 18% of games like this are level after 60 minutes, which is why Olimpija Ljubljana take it in regulation only 52% of the time on our numbers, with overtime and the shootout supplying the rest of the 62%. The market's view of the winner lines up with the model, making Olimpija Ljubljana clear favourites without the game looking like a blowout.

The projected 3–2 scoreline sits under the 6.5 total, and our line puts the under at 51%. On the puck line, Olimpija Ljubljana are priced at −1.5 with a 37% probability, which fits a one-goal projection rather than a comfortable win. The numbers describe a close game where the favourite's edge shows up in the result more than in the margin.

Olimpija Ljubljana to win, overtime and shootout included, at 62%, with a projected score of 3–2.