ICE Hockey League

Bolzano vs Villach prediction

Bolzano9–1–2 · Home Villach5–4–3 · Away07:45 PMOct 28

67%win chance incl. overtime33%

Our pick

67%BOL67%BOL

Bolzano to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.50 · projected 3–2

The numbers side with Bolzano (67%) at home against Villach, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

After 60 minutes

BOLBolzano in 60'

57%

Tied → OTTied → OT

19%

VILVillach in 60'

25%

Game flow

BOL 3.4 · VIL 2.4 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.0–0.6

P2 · 1.2–0.9

P3 · 1.2–1.0

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Bolzano67%1.50
Regulation result (60 minutes)Bolzano57%1.77
Puck lineVillach +1.560%1.67
Total goalsOver 5.552%1.91
Both teams to scoreYes88%1.13

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Bolzano

67%fair 1.50

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Bolzano

57%fair 1.77

Puck line

Villach +1.5

60%fair 1.67

Total goals

Over 5.5

52%fair 1.91

Both teams to score

Yes

88%fair 1.13

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

B. McClureBOL · 9 G in 12 GP · 12 GP9435%2.87
D. MantenutoBOL · 6 G in 9 GP · 9 GP6433%3.07
I. RatcliffeBOL · 7 G in 11 GP · 11 GP7632%3.12
E. WallentaVIL · 6 G in 12 GP · 12 GP6525%4.07
T. ElsonBOL · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5423%4.28
J. TeasdaleVIL · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5522%4.57
J. HughesVIL · 5 G in 10 GP · 10 GP5320%4.91
K. HancockVIL · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4719%5.16
M. BradleyBOL · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3418%5.71
R. SproulVIL · 3 G in 7 GP · 7 GP3617%5.90

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Bolzano vs Villach?

The numbers side with Bolzano (67%) at home against Villach, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

Bolzano have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 4.4 and allowing 2.4 goals a game over that stretch. Villach have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.8 and allowing 2.8 goals a game over that stretch.

Bolzano sit 1st, while Villach sit 9th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Bolzano rate +0.65 and Villach −0.03 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.68 goals to Bolzano. Home ice is worth about 0.36 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Bolzano 57% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 19%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

These teams have met 1 time recently (Bolzano 0, Villach 1); the latest finished Villach 4–3 Bolzano on 2026-10-09.

Our own lines for this game: Bolzano −1.5 on the puck line (40%) and 5.5 total goals, with the over at 52% (6 projected).

Bolzano to win, overtime and shootout included (67%). Projected score: 3–2.