Liiga

Jukurit vs Lukko prediction

Jukurit11–5–0 · Home Lukko10–4–1 · Away06:30 PMOct 28

53%win chance incl. overtime47%

Our pick

53%JUK53%JUK

Jukurit to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.90 · projected 2–1

Our model makes Jukurit 53% favourites at home against Lukko, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 2–1 final.

After 60 minutes

JUKJukurit in 60'

41%

Tied → OTTied → OT

23%

LUKLukko in 60'

36%

Game flow

JUK 2.3 · LUK 2.1 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.8–0.6

P2 · 0.8–0.7

P3 · 0.7–0.8

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Jukurit53%1.90
Regulation result (60 minutes)Jukurit41%2.42
Puck lineLukko +1.576%1.32
Total goalsOver 4.552%1.91
Both teams to scoreYes79%1.26

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Jukurit

53%fair 1.90

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Jukurit

41%fair 2.42

Puck line

Lukko +1.5

76%fair 1.32

Total goals

Over 4.5

52%fair 1.91

Both teams to score

Yes

79%fair 1.26

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

F. RobertLUK · 7 G in 15 GP · 15 GP7623%4.33
J. OlofssonJUK · 6 G in 15 GP · 15 GP6421%4.86
A. SaarelaLUK · 6 G in 15 GP · 15 GP6720%5.12
A. BeaucageLUK · 6 G in 16 GP · 16 GP6319%5.35
J. HayhurstJUK · 5 G in 14 GP · 14 GP5018%5.54
C. FordJUK · 5 G in 14 GP · 14 GP5317%5.76
L. BoudonJUK · 4 G in 15 GP · 15 GP4215%6.70
A. LintuniemiJUK · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3115%6.70
T. HaapanenLUK · 4 G in 15 GP · 15 GP4214%7.28
H. LiedesLUK · 4 G in 15 GP · 15 GP4213%7.61

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits (1)

A. Saarela · kallerna, CC BY-SA 4.0

Who will win Jukurit vs Lukko?

Our model makes Jukurit 53% favourites at home against Lukko, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 2–1 final.

Jukurit have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 1.8 and allowing 2.0 goals a game over that stretch. Lukko have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 2.8 and allowing 1.6 goals a game over that stretch.

Jukurit sit 1st, while Lukko sit 2nd.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Jukurit rate +0.05 and Lukko +0.30 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.25 goals to Lukko. Home ice is worth about 0.39 goals a game in this league.

About 23% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Jukurit win it in regulation only 41% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 53%.

Our own lines for this game: Jukurit −1.5 on the puck line (24%) and 4.5 total goals, with the over at 52% (4.6 projected).

Jukurit to win, overtime and shootout included (53%). Projected score: 2–1. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.