P2 · 14'

HPK vs HIFK prediction

HPK8–8–0 · Home HIFK4–6–4 · Away2–3P2 · 14'

49%win chance incl. overtime51%

Live · updates automatically

Our pick

51%HIF51%HIF

HIFK to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.98 · projected 2–3

Our model makes HIFK 51% favourites on the road against HPK, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

HPKHPK in 60'

38%

Tied → OTTied → OT

24%

HIFHIFK in 60'

38%

Game flow

HPK 2.6 · HIF 2.5 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.5–0.7

P2 · 0.9–0.6

P3 · 1.2–1.2

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)HIFK51%1.98
Regulation result (60 minutes)HPK38%2.61
Puck lineHPK +1.574%1.35
Total goalsOver 4.563%1.59
Both teams to scoreYes83%1.20

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

HIFK

51%fair 1.98

Regulation result (60 minutes)

HPK

38%fair 2.61

Puck line

HPK +1.5

74%fair 1.35

Total goals

Over 4.5

63%fair 1.59

Both teams to score

Yes

83%fair 1.20

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

D. MakiahoHIF · 9 G in 15 GP · 15 GP9930%3.31
E. LiukasHIF · 7 G in 15 GP · 15 GP7324%4.14
I. PakarinenHIF · 6 G in 15 GP · 15 GP6723%4.32
S. PaivarintaHPK · 6 G in 16 GP · 16 GP6422%4.55
R. VesterinenHPK · 4 G in 15 GP · 15 GP4321%4.73
O. KorhonenHPK · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3519%5.39
L. VanhataloHIF · 4 G in 15 GP · 15 GP4518%5.62
E. de JongHPK · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3218%5.70
V. MarleauHIF · 4 G in 15 GP · 15 GP4317%6.04
V. JokirinneHPK · 3 G in 16 GP · 16 GP3416%6.20

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win HPK vs HIFK?

Our model makes HIFK 51% favourites on the road against HPK, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

HPK have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.4 and allowing 2.4 goals a game over that stretch. HIFK have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 3.0 and allowing 3.0 goals a game over that stretch.

HPK sit 11th, while HIFK sit 15th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, HPK rate −0.30 and HIFK −0.08 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.22 goals to HIFK. Home ice is worth about 0.39 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives HIFK 38% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 24%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

These teams have met 1 time recently (HPK 0, HIFK 1); the latest finished HIFK 5–3 HPK on 2026-09-04.

The betting market agrees: once the bookmaker margin is removed it prices HIFK at 51% on the moneyline across 9 bookmakers.

Against the market lines, HIFK −1.5 on the puck line comes in 26% of the time on our numbers, and the over 4.5 goals lands 63% against a projected 5.3 goals.

HIFK to win, overtime and shootout included (51%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.