NHL

Vancouver Canucks vs Minnesota Wild prediction

Vancouver Canucks2–9–1 · Home Minnesota Wild6–3–2 · Away02:00 AM UTCOct 26

42%win chance incl. overtime58%

Our pick

58%MIN58%MIN

Minnesota Wild to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.72 · projected 2–3

Minnesota Wild are the pick on the road against Vancouver Canucks: a 58% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

VANVancouver Canucks in 60'

32%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

MINMinnesota Wild in 60'

48%

Game flow

VAN 2.8 · MIN 3.3 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.2–1.2

P2 · 0.8–1.2

P3 · 0.8–0.9

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Minnesota Wild58%1.72
Regulation result (60 minutes)Minnesota Wild48%2.09
Puck lineVancouver Canucks +1.567%1.48
Total goalsUnder 6.554%1.86
Both teams to scoreYes91%1.10

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Minnesota Wild

58%fair 1.72

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Minnesota Wild

48%fair 2.09

Puck line

Vancouver Canucks +1.5

67%fair 1.48

Total goals

Under 6.5

54%fair 1.86

Both teams to score

Yes

91%fair 1.10

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Lines

Lines from the last game · may change

Vancouver Canucks

Last game: Oct 22

Forwards

1st line9 min together
74LWDeBruskJake
77CChytilFilip
88RWLekkerimakiJonathan
2nd line12 min together
18LWO'ConnorDrew
40CPetterssonElias
94RWKarlssonLinus
3rd line9 min together
13LWBainsArshdeep
63CSassonMax
7RWGallagherBrendan
4th line5 min together
47LWCotterPaul
23CRossiMarco
6RWBoeserBrock

Defence

1st pair16 min together
17DHronekFilip
25DPetterssonElias
2nd pair13 min together
5DWillanderTom
8DBuiumZeev
3rd pair5 min together
4DOleksiakJamie
90DManciniVictor

Goalies

32ProjectedLankinenKevin
31BackupMeriläinenL.

Minnesota Wild

Last game: Oct 22

Forwards

1st line12 min together
12LWBoldyMatt
14CEkJoel Eriksson
97RWKaprizovKirill
2nd line8 min together
20LWColemanBlake
38CHartmanRyan
10RWBrinkBobby
3rd line7 min together
61LWLorenzRieger
13CTreninYakov
22RWYurovDanila
4th line6 min together
78LWSturmNico
47CMcCarronMichael
19RWPitlickTyler

Defence

1st pair13 min together
43DHughesQuinn
25DBrodinJonas
2nd pair8 min together
46DSpurgeonJared
48DHuntDaemon
3rd pair8 min together
24DBogosianZach
3DMaattaOlli

Goalies

31ProjectedPickardCalvin
30BackupWallstedtJesper

How we read the lines: from the NHL’s shift charts, the three forwards and the two defencemen who shared the most 5-on-5 ice time, ranked by time on ice. Coaches shuffle lines often, so treat them as a guide until puck drop.

Goalie duel

Projected

Projected from recent starts · confirmed at puck drop

Kevin Lankinen VAN

.812 save percentage

6.17 GAA · 1–7–0 · 7 starts

Calvin Pickard MIN

.800 save percentage

5.00 GAA · 0–1–0 · 1 start

Back-up expected: second night of a back-to-back

Teams do not name their goalie before the game. We expect the No. 1 unless his team played the night before, when the back-up usually starts; last season that call was right about two times in three. Our win chances do not depend on it.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

K. KaprizovMIN · 11 G in 11 GP · 11 GP11848%2.09
M. BoldyMIN · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5630%3.38
D. YurovMIN · 4 G in 9 GP · 9 GP4227%3.67
J. LekkerimakiVAN · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4421%4.68
E. PetterssonVAN · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4421%4.79
L. KarlssonVAN · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3319%5.40
P. CotterVAN · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4118%5.53
J. Eriksson EkMIN · 2 G in 10 GP · 10 GP2318%5.68
M. SassonVAN · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3217%5.73
M. ShabanovMIN · 2 G in 10 GP · 10 GP2116%6.22

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits: E. Pettersson: Matt.davs, CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

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Who will win Vancouver Canucks vs Minnesota Wild?

Minnesota Wild are the pick on the road against Vancouver Canucks: a 58% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

Vancouver Canucks have won 0 of their last 5, scoring 2.2 and allowing 4.2 goals a game over that stretch. Minnesota Wild have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.6 and allowing 3.2 goals a game over that stretch.

Vancouver Canucks sit 16th in the Western Conference, while Minnesota Wild sit 5th in the Western Conference.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Vancouver Canucks rate −0.57 and Minnesota Wild +0.20 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.77 goals to Minnesota Wild. Home ice is worth about 0.25 goals a game in this league.

About 20% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Minnesota Wild win it in regulation only 48% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 58%.

Our own lines for this game: Minnesota Wild −1.5 on the puck line (33%) and 6.5 total goals, with the under at 54% (6.3 projected).

Minnesota Wild to win, overtime and shootout included (58%). Projected score: 3–2.