DEL2

Düsseldorfer EG vs Bad Nauheim prediction

Düsseldorfer EG10–1–0 · Home Bad Nauheim3–7–1 · Away03:00 PMOct 25

67%win chance incl. overtime33%

Our pick

67%DÜS67%DÜS

Düsseldorfer EG to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.50 · projected 3–2

Düsseldorfer EG are the pick at home against Bad Nauheim, with a 67% win probability including overtime and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

DÜSDüsseldorfer EG in 60'

56%

Tied → OTTied → OT

19%

BADBad Nauheim in 60'

25%

Game flow

DÜS 3.3 · BAD 2.2 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.2–0.8

P2 · 1.3–1.0

P3 · 0.8–0.5

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Düsseldorfer EG67%1.50
Regulation result (60 minutes)Düsseldorfer EG56%1.77
Puck lineBad Nauheim +1.560%1.65
Total goalsUnder 5.553%1.88
Both teams to scoreYes86%1.16

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Düsseldorfer EG

67%fair 1.50

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Düsseldorfer EG

56%fair 1.77

Puck line

Bad Nauheim +1.5

60%fair 1.65

Total goals

Under 5.5

53%fair 1.88

Both teams to score

Yes

86%fair 1.16

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

C. MackinDÜS · 8 G in 10 GP · 10 GP8636%2.75
C. TurnbullDÜS · 8 G in 10 GP · 10 GP8935%2.83
V. JarvelainenDÜS · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5426%3.88
J. KeussenBAD · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4221%4.77
L. NiederbergerDÜS · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4020%5.02
E. BradfordDÜS · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3818%5.44
J. KornelliBAD · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3315%6.77
P. PretoBAD · 2 G in 7 GP · 7 GP2515%6.79
A. McPhersonBAD · 2 G in 11 GP · 11 GP2314%7.05
M. MarcinewBAD · 2 G in 11 GP · 11 GP2113%7.78

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Düsseldorfer EG vs Bad Nauheim?

Düsseldorfer EG are the pick at home against Bad Nauheim, with a 67% win probability including overtime and a projected 3–2 score.

Düsseldorfer EG come into this one on a strong run, having taken four of their last five while averaging 4.2 goals scored and 3.2 conceded per game. Bad Nauheim's recent form is thinner: two wins in five, with 2.6 goals scored and 2.2 allowed per game. The table underlines the gap, with Düsseldorfer EG sitting 1st and Bad Nauheim 14th.

The ratings make the same point in different terms. Once the opponents each side has faced are accounted for, Düsseldorfer EG rate +0.49 goals per game against an average team and Bad Nauheim −0.19, a 0.69-goal edge to the home side. Home ice adds roughly 0.33 goals a game in this league, which pushes the gap wider still and explains why the model leans so clearly toward the hosts.

Inside 60 minutes the model gives Düsseldorfer EG a 56% chance of winning in regulation, with a 19% chance the game is tied after three periods and heads to overtime and possibly a shootout. That structure matters for how the winner is priced: the 67% figure includes overtime and the shootout, so it is the number to use when judging the outright pick rather than the 56%.

Bad Nauheim's case rests on a defence that has conceded only 2.2 goals a game over their last five, a rate that could keep this close even against the league leaders. But their scoring at 2.6 per game looks light against a Düsseldorfer EG side averaging 4.2, and the ratings gap plus home ice leaves the visitors needing an unusually tight, low-scoring game to spring the upset.

The projected 3–2 score sits just under the 5.5 total, which is why the under carries 53% and a 5.7 projected goals figure on our line. On the puck line, Düsseldorfer EG −1.5 at 40% reflects that a one-goal margin is the most likely outcome, so the favourite winning outright and the favourite covering by two are very different bets here.

Düsseldorfer EG to win, overtime and shootout included, at 67%, with a projected score of 3–2.