DEL2

Crimmitschau vs Regensburg prediction

Crimmitschau6–3–1 · Home Regensburg5–2–3 · Away04:00 PM UTCOct 25

56%win chance incl. overtime44%

Our pick

56%CRI56%CRI

Crimmitschau to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.79 · projected 3–2

Our model makes Crimmitschau 56% favourites at home against Regensburg, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

CRICrimmitschau in 60'

46%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

REGRegensburg in 60'

35%

Game flow

CRI 3.1 · REG 2.8 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.9–0.9

P2 · 1.1–0.9

P3 · 1.1–1.0

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Crimmitschau56%1.79
Regulation result (60 minutes)Crimmitschau46%2.19
Puck lineRegensburg +1.570%1.43
Total goalsOver 5.554%1.86
Both teams to scoreYes90%1.11

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Crimmitschau

56%fair 1.79

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Crimmitschau

46%fair 2.19

Puck line

Regensburg +1.5

70%fair 1.43

Total goals

Over 5.5

54%fair 1.86

Both teams to score

Yes

90%fair 1.11

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

L. BruneCRI · 6 G in 10 GP · 10 GP6730%3.33
D. PeterREG · 5 G in 7 GP · 7 GP5327%3.70
C. TrivinoREG · 6 G in 10 GP · 10 GP6326%3.87
J. KarkiCRI · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4725%4.07
A. McCormickCRI · 4 G in 9 GP · 9 GP4724%4.10
K. SlezakREG · 4 G in 8 GP · 8 GP4324%4.17
L. WillCRI · 4 G in 9 GP · 9 GP4523%4.27
T. WardREG · 3 G in 6 GP · 6 GP3323%4.42
S. PayeurREG · 3 G in 6 GP · 6 GP3222%4.45
S. StreuCRI · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4122%4.49

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Crimmitschau vs Regensburg?

Our model makes Crimmitschau 56% favourites at home against Regensburg, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

Crimmitschau have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.6 and allowing 2.4 goals a game over that stretch. Regensburg have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 2.4 and allowing 3.2 goals a game over that stretch.

Crimmitschau sit 3rd, while Regensburg sit 5th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Crimmitschau rate +0.26 and Regensburg +0.24 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.02 goals to Crimmitschau. Home ice is worth about 0.34 goals a game in this league.

About 20% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Crimmitschau win it in regulation only 46% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 56%.

Our own lines for this game: Crimmitschau −1.5 on the puck line (30%) and 5.5 total goals, with the over at 54% (6.1 projected).

Crimmitschau to win, overtime and shootout included (56%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.