DEL2

Kassel vs Weiden prediction

Kassel8–2–0 · Home Weiden3–5–2 · Away05:30 PM UTCOct 23

72%win chance incl. overtime28%

Our pick

72%KAS72%KAS

Kassel to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.39 · projected 3–2

Kassel are the pick to win at 72%, with a projected score of 3–2.

After 60 minutes

KASKassel in 60'

62%

Tied → OTTied → OT

18%

WEIWeiden in 60'

20%

Game flow

KAS 3.6 · WEI 2.7 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.0–0.7

P2 · 1.3–1.0

P3 · 1.2–1.0

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Kassel72%1.39
Regulation result (60 minutes)Kassel62%1.63
Puck lineWeiden +1.551%1.94
Total goalsOver 5.554%1.84
Both teams to scoreYes86%1.16

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Kassel

72%fair 1.39

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Kassel

62%fair 1.63

Puck line

Weiden +1.5

51%fair 1.94

Total goals

Over 5.5

54%fair 1.84

Both teams to score

Yes

86%fair 1.16

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

B. TraceyWEI · 9 G in 10 GP · 10 GP9636%2.75
C. WilkieKAS · 6 G in 10 GP · 10 GP6334%2.90
D. MieszkowskiKAS · 5 G in 10 GP · 10 GP5430%3.33
B. O'DonnellKAS · 5 G in 10 GP · 10 GP5430%3.35
M. WhiteKAS · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4428%3.52
A. VoyerWEI · 5 G in 10 GP · 10 GP5326%3.80
L. BraunKAS · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3226%3.81
M. RegushWEI · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4724%4.25
N. PostelWEI · 2 G in 7 GP · 7 GP2216%6.17
C. JahnkeWEI · 2 G in 9 GP · 9 GP2414%6.99

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Kassel vs Weiden?

Kassel are the pick to win at 72%, with a projected score of 3–2.

Kassel come into this one in strong form, having won 4 of their last 5 while scoring 2.8 and allowing 2.4 goals a game over that stretch. Weiden have won 2 of their last 5, and their defensive record in that span is the concern: 4.6 goals against per game against 3.0 scored. The table reflects that gap, with Kassel sitting 2nd and Weiden 12th.

The ratings sharpen the picture. Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Kassel rate +0.07 goals per game against an average team and Weiden −0.43, an edge of 0.50 goals to Kassel before home ice is factored in. Home ice is worth about 0.34 goals a game in this league, which pushes the gap wider still. That combination is why the model lands on a 3–2 final and a Kassel win 72% of the time.

The market reads the game the same way. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, the moneyline across 9 bookmakers prices Kassel at 76%, close to the model's 72%. The remaining uncertainty is mostly about how the game ends rather than who wins it: about 18% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, so Kassel take it in regulation only 62% of the time on these numbers, with overtime and the shootout making up the rest of the 72%.

Weiden's case rests on their scoring, 3.0 goals a game over the last five, which is enough to keep a 3–2 type of game within reach. But a team allowing 4.6 over the same stretch, rated −0.43 against an average opponent, faces a hard task against a side second in the table and winning four of five. The numbers and the market point the same direction.

The projected 3–2 score implies a one-goal margin, and on these numbers Kassel −1.5 on the puck line comes in 49% of the time, essentially a coin flip. The projected total of 6.5 goals sits above the 5.5 line, and the over lands 54% against that line. So the model sees the winner clearly but not the margin, while the total leans slightly to the over.

Kassel to win, overtime and shootout included, at 72%, with a projected score of 3–2.