DEL2

Freiburg vs Dresdner Eislowen prediction

Freiburg3–5–2 · Home Dresdner Eislowen5–5–0 · Away05:30 PM UTCOct 25

51%win chance incl. overtime49%

Our pick

51%FRE51%FRE

Freiburg to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.96 · projected 3–2

Our model makes Freiburg 51% favourites at home against Dresdner Eislowen, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

FREFreiburg in 60'

41%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

DREDresdner Eislowen in 60'

39%

Game flow

FRE 3.0 · DRE 3.0 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.8–0.6

P2 · 1.3–1.0

P3 · 0.9–1.3

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Freiburg51%1.96
Regulation result (60 minutes)Freiburg41%2.44
Puck lineDresdner Eislowen +1.574%1.35
Total goalsOver 5.555%1.82
Both teams to scoreYes91%1.10

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Freiburg

51%fair 1.96

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Freiburg

41%fair 2.44

Puck line

Dresdner Eislowen +1.5

74%fair 1.35

Total goals

Over 5.5

55%fair 1.82

Both teams to score

Yes

91%fair 1.10

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

L. McCallumFRE · 5 G in 10 GP · 10 GP5532%3.12
T. SpinkDRE · 6 G in 7 GP · 7 GP6631%3.20
T. AndresDRE · 5 G in 9 GP · 9 GP5425%4.01
L. MuhlbauerFRE · 3 G in 9 GP · 9 GP3224%4.13
A. HelewkaDRE · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4722%4.56
C. BillichFRE · 2 G in 5 GP · 5 GP2221%4.69
N. LinsenmaierFRE · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3321%4.83
C. KiefersauerFRE · 2 G in 10 GP · 10 GP2218%5.56
J. NijenhuisDRE · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3518%5.69
A. AhlrothDRE · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3218%5.70

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Freiburg vs Dresdner Eislowen?

Our model makes Freiburg 51% favourites at home against Dresdner Eislowen, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

Freiburg have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.4 and allowing 3.0 goals a game over that stretch. Dresdner Eislowen have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.8 and allowing 3.4 goals a game over that stretch.

Freiburg sit 13th, while Dresdner Eislowen sit 6th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Freiburg rate −0.26 and Dresdner Eislowen +0.02 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.28 goals to Dresdner Eislowen. Home ice is worth about 0.34 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Freiburg 41% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 20%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

Our own lines for this game: Freiburg −1.5 on the puck line (26%) and 5.5 total goals, with the over at 55% (6.2 projected).

Freiburg to win, overtime and shootout included (51%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.