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Kölner Haie vs Adler Mannheim prediction

Kölner Haie6–4–2 · Home Adler Mannheim7–3–2 · Away07:30 PMOct 27

48%win chance incl. overtime52%

Our pick

52%ADL52%ADL

Adler Mannheim to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.94 · projected 2–3

Adler Mannheim are the pick on the road against Kölner Haie: a 52% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

KÖLKölner Haie in 60'

39%

Tied → OTTied → OT

18%

ADLAdler Mannheim in 60'

42%

Game flow

KÖL 3.0 · ADL 3.1 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.9–0.9

P2 · 1.0–1.0

P3 · 1.1–1.3

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Adler Mannheim52%1.94
Regulation result (60 minutes)Adler Mannheim42%2.36
Puck lineKölner Haie +1.573%1.38
Total goalsUnder 6.553%1.90
Both teams to scoreYes91%1.10

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Adler Mannheim

52%fair 1.94

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Adler Mannheim

42%fair 2.36

Puck line

Kölner Haie +1.5

73%fair 1.38

Total goals

Under 6.5

53%fair 1.90

Both teams to score

Yes

91%fair 1.10

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

L. AubryKÖL · 7 G in 11 GP · 11 GP7833%3.06
M. NoebelsKÖL · 7 G in 12 GP · 12 GP7226%3.85
V. KemilainenKÖL · 6 G in 12 GP · 12 GP6324%4.09
N. MattinenADL · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5224%4.16
M. LjunghKÖL · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5522%4.56
D. FischbuchKÖL · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4421%4.74
L. GawankeADL · 3 G in 9 GP · 9 GP3620%4.97
Z. SolowADL · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3419%5.27
M. PlachtaADL · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3618%5.67
T. KuhnhacklADL · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3217%5.79

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Kölner Haie vs Adler Mannheim?

Adler Mannheim are the pick on the road against Kölner Haie: a 52% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

Kölner Haie have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.4 and allowing 2.6 goals a game over that stretch. Adler Mannheim have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 3.4 and allowing 1.6 goals a game over that stretch.

Kölner Haie sit 7th, while Adler Mannheim sit 2nd.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Kölner Haie rate −0.01 and Adler Mannheim +0.40 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.41 goals to Adler Mannheim. Home ice is worth about 0.30 goals a game in this league.

About 18% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Adler Mannheim win it in regulation only 42% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 52%.

Our own lines for this game: Adler Mannheim −1.5 on the puck line (27%) and 6.5 total goals, with the under at 53% (6.4 projected).

Adler Mannheim to win, overtime and shootout included (52%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.