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Straubing Tigers vs Kolner prediction

Straubing Tigers7–3–0 · Home Kolner5–4–2 · Away05:30 PM UTCOct 23

54%win chance incl. overtime46%

Our pick

54%STR54%STR

Straubing Tigers to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.84 · projected 3–2

Straubing Tigers are the pick to win at 54%, with a projected 3–2 final score.

After 60 minutes

STRStraubing Tigers in 60'

43%

Tied → OTTied → OT

21%

KOLKolner in 60'

35%

Game flow

STR 3.6 · KOL 2.9 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.2–1.0

P2 · 1.0–0.8

P3 · 1.3–1.0

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Straubing Tigers54%1.84
Regulation result (60 minutes)Straubing Tigers43%2.31
Puck lineStraubing Tigers +1.574%1.35
Total goalsUnder 6.551%1.96
Both teams to scoreYes90%1.11

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Straubing Tigers

54%fair 1.84

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Straubing Tigers

43%fair 2.31

Puck line

Straubing Tigers +1.5

74%fair 1.35

Total goals

Under 6.5

51%fair 1.96

Both teams to score

Yes

90%fair 1.11

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

N. HalloranSTR · 5 G in 9 GP · 9 GP5729%3.39
M. NoebelsKOL · 7 G in 11 GP · 11 GP7327%3.71
J. BeaudinSTR · 4 G in 8 GP · 8 GP4726%3.84
L. AubryKOL · 5 G in 10 GP · 10 GP5626%3.87
V. KemilainenKOL · 6 G in 11 GP · 11 GP6225%3.95
S. McKenzieSTR · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4325%4.08
J. ReesSTR · 4 G in 9 GP · 9 GP4525%4.08
M. LjunghKOL · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5423%4.40
M. BrandtSTR · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3522%4.45
D. FischbuchKOL · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3117%5.78

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Straubing Tigers vs Kolner?

Straubing Tigers are the pick to win at 54%, with a projected 3–2 final score.

Straubing Tigers hold a 54% edge at home against Kolner, and the model's most likely scoreline is 3–2. That margin is thin rather than commanding, so the lean comes with a warning attached: this is close to a coin flip. The home side also rates 2nd in the table against Kolner's 7th, which supports the favourite's case without making it overwhelming.

Form points the same way. Straubing Tigers have taken 4 of their last 5 while scoring 4.6 and conceding 2.2 goals a game over that stretch, whereas Kolner have won 2 of their last 5 with 2.6 scored and 2.8 allowed. Adjusted for the strength of opponents faced, Straubing Tigers sit at +0.36 goals per game against an average team and Kolner at −0.10, a gap of 0.46 goals. Home ice adds roughly 0.28 goals a game in this league, which is part of why the hosts are favoured.

The market is not far off that view. Across 9 bookmakers, with the margin stripped out, Straubing Tigers are priced at 51% on the moneyline, a little below the model's 54%. About 21% of games like this are level after 60 minutes, so the hosts win inside regulation only 43% of the time on these numbers, with overtime and the shootout accounting for the rest of their 54%. Kolner's route into the game is the narrow gap between the two sides rather than any clear statistical advantage.

Where Kolner can make a case is in the closeness of the ratings and the frequency of tied hockey in this matchup profile. A single goal separates the teams in the projected score, and the regulation-win share of 43% shows how often the game can extend beyond 60 minutes. The model still lands on the home side, but the margin is small enough that the result could swing on one sequence.

The projected 3–2 score leaves Straubing Tigers +1.5 on the puck line as the comfortable side, coming in 74% of the time on our numbers. On the total, the projection of 6.7 goals sits just above the 6.5 line, and the under lands 51% — a near split that makes that market the tighter of the two.

Straubing Tigers to win, overtime and shootout included, at 54%, with a projected score of 3–2.