Latvian Hockey League

Kyiv Capitals vs HS Riga prediction

Kyiv Capitals10–2–0 · Home HS Riga3–9–0 · Away01:30 PMOct 31

78%win chance incl. overtime22%

Our pick

78%KYI78%KYI

Kyiv Capitals to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.28 · projected 4–3

Kyiv Capitals are the pick at home against HS Riga: a 78% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 4–3 score.

After 60 minutes

KYIKyiv Capitals in 60'

71%

Tied → OTTied → OT

13%

RIGHS Riga in 60'

16%

Game flow

KYI 4.6 · RIG 2.5 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.8–0.8

P2 · 1.5–1.0

P3 · 1.2–0.7

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Kyiv Capitals78%1.28
Regulation result (60 minutes)Kyiv Capitals71%1.41
Puck lineKyiv Capitals −1.557%1.76
Total goalsOver 6.559%1.69
Both teams to scoreYes91%1.10

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Kyiv Capitals

78%fair 1.28

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Kyiv Capitals

71%fair 1.41

Puck line

Kyiv Capitals −1.5

57%fair 1.76

Total goals

Over 6.5

59%fair 1.69

Both teams to score

Yes

91%fair 1.10

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

D. SarkanisKYI · 13 G in 12 GP · 12 GP13849%2.03
K. StradnieksKYI · 8 G in 12 GP · 12 GP8634%2.92
E. H. JansonsKYI · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5627%3.72
G. SpruktsKYI · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5527%3.75
O. SislannikovsKYI · 3 G in 6 GP · 6 GP3326%3.78
M. MezinsRIG · 4 G in 7 GP · 7 GP4426%3.78
A. ApsitisRIG · 6 G in 12 GP · 12 GP6126%3.81
N. VengersRIG · 2 G in 7 GP · 7 GP2317%5.76
A. SevcenkoRIG · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3016%6.34
R. ZileRIG · 2 G in 12 GP · 12 GP2415%6.55

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Kyiv Capitals vs HS Riga?

Kyiv Capitals are the pick at home against HS Riga: a 78% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 4–3 score.

Kyiv Capitals have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 5.0 and allowing 2.0 goals a game over that stretch. HS Riga have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 2.0 and allowing 5.6 goals a game over that stretch.

Kyiv Capitals sit 1st, while HS Riga sit 6th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Kyiv Capitals rate +1.04 and HS Riga −0.90 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 1.94 goals to Kyiv Capitals. Home ice is worth about 0.12 goals a game in this league.

About 13% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Kyiv Capitals win it in regulation only 71% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 78%.

These teams have met 2 times recently (Kyiv Capitals 2, HS Riga 0); the latest finished Kyiv Capitals 6–3 HS Riga on 2026-10-14.

Our own lines for this game: Kyiv Capitals −1.5 on the puck line (57%) and 6.5 total goals, with the over at 59% (7.2 projected).

Kyiv Capitals to win, overtime and shootout included (78%). Projected score: 4–3.