KHL

Spartak Moscow vs Shanghai prediction

Spartak Moscow11–5–2 · Home Shanghai11–4–2 · Away05:00 PMOct 25

56%win chance incl. overtime44%

Our pick

56%SPA56%SPA

Spartak Moscow to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.79 · projected 3–2

Spartak Moscow are the pick to win, overtime and shootout included, at 56%, with a projected 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

SPASpartak Moscow in 60'

45%

Tied → OTTied → OT

22%

SHAShanghai in 60'

34%

Game flow

SPA 2.5 · SHA 2.2 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.8–0.5

P2 · 0.6–0.9

P3 · 1.2–0.8

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Spartak Moscow56%1.79
Regulation result (60 minutes)Spartak Moscow45%2.24
Puck lineShanghai +1.572%1.39
Total goalsOver 4.558%1.72
Both teams to scoreYes84%1.19

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Spartak Moscow

56%fair 1.79

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Spartak Moscow

45%fair 2.24

Puck line

Shanghai +1.5

72%fair 1.39

Total goals

Over 4.5

58%fair 1.72

Both teams to score

Yes

84%fair 1.19

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

A. BelyayevSPA · 9 G in 16 GP · 16 GP9327%3.65
B. MurraySHA · 9 G in 16 GP · 16 GP9626%3.86
Y. FilinSPA · 6 G in 16 GP · 16 GP6221%4.79
D. JaskinSHA · 8 G in 17 GP · 17 GP8320%4.96
D. ChenSHA · 6 G in 17 GP · 17 GP6420%5.02
M. MaltsevSPA · 5 G in 17 GP · 17 GP5117%5.89
R. SutterSHA · 5 G in 13 GP · 13 GP5416%6.16
I. RyabovSPA · 2 G in 7 GP · 7 GP2216%6.23
D. GutikSPA · 4 G in 15 GP · 15 GP4216%6.27
V. BarulinSHA · 2 G in 12 GP · 12 GP2312%8.53

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Spartak Moscow vs Shanghai?

Spartak Moscow are the pick to win, overtime and shootout included, at 56%, with a projected 3–2 final.

Spartak Moscow carry the stronger case into this one, and the model makes them 56% favourites at home once overtime and the shootout are folded in. Their recent run is the loudest argument: five wins from five while scoring 3.2 and allowing just 0.8 goals a game. Shanghai have matched that scoring rate at 3.2 over their last five but have conceded 3.0, and have won only two of those games.

The table keeps the two close, with Spartak Moscow 5th in the Western Conference and Shanghai 6th. The ratings separate them a little more clearly: adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Spartak Moscow sit at +0.44 goals per game against an average team and Shanghai at +0.20, an edge of 0.23 goals to the home side. Home ice adds roughly 0.09 goals a game on top of that.

The market has landed in the same place. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, the moneyline across 2 bookmakers prices Spartak Moscow at 56%, matching the model exactly. The projected 3–2 scoreline also fits the shape of the game: about 22% of games like this are level after 60 minutes, so Spartak Moscow win in regulation only 44% of the time and the rest of their 56% comes after regulation.

Shanghai's case rests on their own scoring, which has held at 3.2 across the last five, and on how narrow the gap is in the standings. But the defensive numbers are the difference, and the ratings edge plus home ice points one way. This is close to a coin flip, and the lean should be treated with care.

The projected 3–2 final sits below the 4.5 total goals line, and our over probability is 60% against a 5.1 projected goals figure, so the two readings pull in different directions and the total is not a clean call. On the puck line, Spartak Moscow −1.5 comes in at 28%, which fits a one-goal projection: the model expects the game to be decided narrowly, with overtime and the shootout absorbing much of the 56% win probability.

Spartak Moscow to win, overtime and shootout included (56%), with a projected score of 3–2.