ICE Hockey League

Salzburg vs Vienna Capitals prediction

Salzburg6–6–1 · Home Vienna Capitals7–4–1 · Away07:15 PMOct 28

53%win chance incl. overtime47%

Our pick

53%SAL53%SAL

Salzburg to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.90 · projected 3–2

The numbers side with Salzburg (53%) at home against Vienna Capitals, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

After 60 minutes

SALSalzburg in 60'

43%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

VIEVienna Capitals in 60'

37%

Game flow

SAL 3.0 · VIE 2.8 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.9–1.1

P2 · 0.9–1.0

P3 · 1.1–0.8

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Salzburg53%1.90
Regulation result (60 minutes)Salzburg43%2.34
Puck lineVienna Capitals +1.573%1.38
Total goalsOver 5.553%1.88
Both teams to scoreYes90%1.11

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Salzburg

53%fair 1.90

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Salzburg

43%fair 2.34

Puck line

Vienna Capitals +1.5

73%fair 1.38

Total goals

Over 5.5

53%fair 1.88

Both teams to score

Yes

90%fair 1.11

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

P. SchneiderSAL · 10 G in 10 GP · 10 GP10442%2.39
S. GersichVIE · 8 G in 11 GP · 11 GP8334%2.96
S. PeetersVIE · 5 G in 6 GP · 6 GP5333%3.05
J. LiljaVIE · 7 G in 12 GP · 12 GP7231%3.25
J. GregoireVIE · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5623%4.32
M. HuberSAL · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4522%4.61
M. BohmSAL · 2 G in 7 GP · 7 GP2118%5.71
N. PoissonSAL · 3 G in 13 GP · 13 GP3217%5.72
B. NissnerSAL · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3517%5.73
N. BailenVIE · 2 G in 12 GP · 12 GP2414%7.09

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits (3)

P. Schneider · MacKrys, CC BY-SA 4.0
M. Huber · Ailura, CC BY-SA 3.0 at
B. Nissner · Ailura, CC BY-SA 3.0 at

Who will win Salzburg vs Vienna Capitals?

The numbers side with Salzburg (53%) at home against Vienna Capitals, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

Salzburg have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 2.8 and allowing 2.8 goals a game over that stretch. Vienna Capitals have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 2.6 and allowing 2.6 goals a game over that stretch.

Salzburg sit 9th, while Vienna Capitals sit 6th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Salzburg rate −0.11 and Vienna Capitals 0.00 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.11 goals to Vienna Capitals. Home ice is worth about 0.27 goals a game in this league.

About 20% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Salzburg win it in regulation only 43% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 53%.

Our own lines for this game: Salzburg −1.5 on the puck line (27%) and 5.5 total goals, with the over at 53% (6.1 projected).

Salzburg to win, overtime and shootout included (53%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.