HockeyAllsvenskan

Kalmar vs Östersund prediction

Kalmar9–2–2 · Home Östersund6–5–3 · Away07:00 PMOct 28

61%win chance incl. overtime39%

Our pick

61%KAL61%KAL

Kalmar to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.64 · projected 3–2

Kalmar are the pick at home against Östersund: a 61% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

KALKalmar in 60'

50%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

ÖSTÖstersund in 60'

29%

Game flow

KAL 3.0 · ÖST 2.4 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.3–0.6

P2 · 0.8–0.7

P3 · 0.9–1.1

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Kalmar61%1.64
Regulation result (60 minutes)Kalmar50%1.99
Puck lineÖstersund +1.566%1.51
Total goalsUnder 5.554%1.84
Both teams to scoreYes87%1.15

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Kalmar

61%fair 1.64

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Kalmar

50%fair 1.99

Puck line

Östersund +1.5

66%fair 1.51

Total goals

Under 5.5

54%fair 1.84

Both teams to score

Yes

87%fair 1.15

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

J. Ihs WozniakKAL · 4 G in 9 GP · 9 GP4425%3.93
A. KlintÖST · 7 G in 14 GP · 14 GP7225%4.05
E. EkmarkKAL · 6 G in 14 GP · 14 GP6324%4.21
A. LjungkrantzÖST · 3 G in 5 GP · 5 GP3323%4.31
C. FeltonKAL · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5223%4.32
L. NijhoffÖST · 3 G in 5 GP · 5 GP3522%4.49
R. VitelliKAL · 5 G in 14 GP · 14 GP5422%4.61
A. McShaneKAL · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4420%4.93
B. BudgellÖST · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3519%5.39
M. SemjonovsÖST · 4 G in 14 GP · 14 GP4318%5.65

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Kalmar vs Östersund?

Kalmar are the pick at home against Östersund: a 61% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

Kalmar have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.8 and allowing 3.6 goals a game over that stretch. Östersund have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.4 and allowing 3.0 goals a game over that stretch.

Kalmar sit 4th, while Östersund sit 10th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Kalmar rate +0.23 and Östersund −0.20 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.43 goals to Kalmar. Home ice is worth about 0.23 goals a game in this league.

About 20% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Kalmar win it in regulation only 50% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 61%.

These teams have met 1 time recently (Kalmar 0, Östersund 1); the latest finished Östersund 5–4 Kalmar on 2026-09-30.

Our own lines for this game: Kalmar −1.5 on the puck line (34%) and 5.5 total goals, with the under at 54% (5.6 projected).

Kalmar to win, overtime and shootout included (61%). Projected score: 3–2.