Czech Extraliga

Litvínov vs Kometa Brno prediction

Litvínov5–6–1 · Home Kometa Brno6–4–2 · Away05:30 PMOct 25

51%win chance incl. overtime49%

Our pick

51%LIT51%LIT

Litvínov to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.96 · projected 3–2

Litvínov are the pick at home against Kometa Brno, with a 51% chance to win including overtime and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

LITLitvínov in 60'

39%

Tied → OTTied → OT

23%

KOMKometa Brno in 60'

38%

Game flow

LIT 2.5 · KOM 2.4 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.6–0.9

P2 · 0.8–0.8

P3 · 1.1–0.7

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Litvínov51%1.96
Regulation result (60 minutes)Litvínov39%2.55
Puck lineLitvínov +1.575%1.32
Total goalsOver 4.561%1.64
Both teams to scoreYes82%1.22

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Litvínov

51%fair 1.96

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Litvínov

39%fair 2.55

Puck line

Litvínov +1.5

75%fair 1.32

Total goals

Over 4.5

61%fair 1.64

Both teams to score

Yes

82%fair 1.22

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

D. KampfLIT · 6 G in 13 GP · 13 GP6428%3.51
R. LeinoKOM · 6 G in 12 GP · 12 GP6426%3.90
P. KoblasaLIT · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4120%4.99
O. KaseLIT · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4419%5.15
V. SamalLIT · 3 G in 9 GP · 9 GP3118%5.46
J. FlekKOM · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4118%5.52
A. IrvingKOM · 2 G in 7 GP · 7 GP2217%6.04
H. ZohornaKOM · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3116%6.13
F. KralKOM · 2 G in 10 GP · 10 GP2114%6.97
D. KaseLIT · 1 G in 5 GP · 5 GP1314%7.13

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Litvínov vs Kometa Brno?

Litvínov are the pick at home against Kometa Brno, with a 51% chance to win including overtime and a projected 3–2 score.

Litvínov carry the better recent form into this one, having won 3 of their last 5 while scoring 2.0 and allowing 1.6 goals a game over that stretch. Kometa Brno have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 1.8 and allowing 2.0. That difference in goals for and against is modest but points the same way as home ice.

The table tells a different story: Litvínov sit 11th and Kometa Brno sit 9th, so the visitors arrive higher placed. Once adjusted for the opponents they have faced, though, the teams are nearly level, with Litvínov at −0.09 and Kometa Brno at −0.10 goals per game against an average team. That gap of 0.01 goals is negligible, which is why home ice, worth about 0.13 goals a game in this league, does most of the work in making Litvínov the favourite.

The head-to-head is thin but favours the hosts: the teams have met 1 time recently, Litvínov 1, Kometa Brno 0, the latest finishing Litvínov 2–1 Kometa Brno on 2026-09-16. The market reads this as close to even, pricing Litvínov at 50% on the moneyline across 5 bookmakers once the margin is removed, barely below our 51%. About 23% of games like this are level after 60 minutes, so Litvínov win in regulation only 39% of the time on our numbers, with overtime and the shootout supplying the rest.

Our predictions make this a lean rather than a conviction: the projected 3–2 scoreline fits a tight game between two teams separated by very little. Litvínov's home edge and slightly better form are enough to tip the pick their way, but the margin is small and the caution is warranted.

The projected 3–2 score implies a one-goal game, which is why Litvínov +1.5 on the puck line comes in 75% of the time on our numbers. The same projection of 5.1 goals sits above the 4.5 line, and the over lands 61%. With the moneyline priced at 50% by the market against our 51%, there is little separation between the books and the model.

Litvínov to win, overtime and shootout included (51%), with a projected score of 3–2.