ICE Hockey League

Val Pusteria vs Salzburg prediction

Val Pusteria7–3–1 · Home Salzburg6–6–1 · Away07:45 PMOct 30

59%win chance incl. overtime41%

Our pick

59%VAL59%VAL

Val Pusteria to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.70 · projected 3–2

Our model makes Val Pusteria 59% favourites at home against Salzburg, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

VALVal Pusteria in 60'

49%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

SALSalzburg in 60'

32%

Game flow

VAL 3.2 · SAL 2.6 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.9–0.7

P2 · 1.1–0.9

P3 · 1.2–1.0

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Val Pusteria59%1.70
Regulation result (60 minutes)Val Pusteria49%2.06
Puck lineSalzburg +1.567%1.48
Total goalsOver 5.552%1.93
Both teams to scoreYes89%1.12

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Val Pusteria

59%fair 1.70

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Val Pusteria

49%fair 2.06

Puck line

Salzburg +1.5

67%fair 1.48

Total goals

Over 5.5

52%fair 1.93

Both teams to score

Yes

89%fair 1.12

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

P. SchneiderSAL · 10 G in 10 GP · 10 GP10438%2.65
G. FitzgeraldVAL · 6 G in 10 GP · 10 GP6532%3.09
G. FontaineVAL · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5224%4.18
A. OsmanskiVAL · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3223%4.26
C. BardreauVAL · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4221%4.68
T. PurdellerVAL · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4421%4.80
M. HuberSAL · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4519%5.20
M. BohmSAL · 2 G in 7 GP · 7 GP2116%6.45
N. PoissonSAL · 3 G in 13 GP · 13 GP3215%6.46
B. NissnerSAL · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3515%6.47

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits (3)

P. Schneider · MacKrys, CC BY-SA 4.0
M. Huber · Ailura, CC BY-SA 3.0 at
B. Nissner · Ailura, CC BY-SA 3.0 at

Who will win Val Pusteria vs Salzburg?

Our model makes Val Pusteria 59% favourites at home against Salzburg, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

Val Pusteria have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 2.6 and allowing 2.2 goals a game over that stretch. Salzburg have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 2.8 and allowing 2.8 goals a game over that stretch.

Val Pusteria sit 5th, while Salzburg sit 9th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Val Pusteria rate +0.16 and Salzburg −0.11 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.27 goals to Val Pusteria. Home ice is worth about 0.27 goals a game in this league.

About 20% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Val Pusteria win it in regulation only 49% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 59%.

Our own lines for this game: Val Pusteria −1.5 on the puck line (33%) and 5.5 total goals, with the over at 52% (6 projected).

Val Pusteria to win, overtime and shootout included (59%). Projected score: 3–2.