NHL

Carolina Hurricanes vs Columbus Blue Jackets prediction

Carolina Hurricanes8–2–2 · Home Columbus Blue Jackets3–5–0 · Away11:00 PM UTCOct 29

66%win chance incl. overtime34%

Our pick

66%CAR66%CAR

Carolina Hurricanes to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.52 · projected 3–2

The numbers side with Carolina Hurricanes (66%) at home against Columbus Blue Jackets, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

After 60 minutes

CARCarolina Hurricanes in 60'

56%

Tied → OTTied → OT

19%

COLColumbus Blue Jackets in 60'

25%

Game flow

CAR 3.6 · COL 2.5 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.7–1.0

P2 · 1.8–0.8

P3 · 1.1–0.8

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Carolina Hurricanes66%1.52
Regulation result (60 minutes)Carolina Hurricanes56%1.79
Puck lineColumbus Blue Jackets +1.560%1.67
Total goalsUnder 6.554%1.84
Both teams to scoreYes90%1.11

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Carolina Hurricanes

66%fair 1.52

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Carolina Hurricanes

56%fair 1.79

Puck line

Columbus Blue Jackets +1.5

60%fair 1.67

Total goals

Under 6.5

54%fair 1.84

Both teams to score

Yes

90%fair 1.11

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Lines

Lines from the last game · may change

Carolina Hurricanes

Last game: Oct 22

Forwards

1st line13 min together
28LWCarrierWilliam
20CAhoSebastian
37RWSvechnikovAndrei
2nd line12 min together
27LWEhlersNikolaj
22CStankovenLogan
53RWBlakeJackson
3rd line9 min together
48LWMartinookJordan
82CKotkaniemiJesperi
24RWJarvisSeth
4th line6 min together
50LWRobinsonEric
76CBrind'AmourSkyler
44RWDeslauriersNicolas

Defence

1st pair18 min together
19DMillerK'Andre
26DWalkerSean
2nd pair18 min together
74DSlavinJaccob
5DChatfieldJalen
3rd pair11 min together
4DGostisbehereShayne
8DValimakiJuuso

Goalies

32ProjectedBussiBrandon
52BackupKochetkovP.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Last game: Oct 20

Forwards

1st line8 min together
89LWKniesMatthew 19CFantilliAdam 91RWJohnsonKent
2nd line9 min together
4LWSillingerCole 3CCoyleCharlie 24RWOlivierMathieu
3rd line7 min together
10LWVoronkovDmitri 23CMonahanSean 43RWNichushkinValeri
4th line8 min together
94LWLombergRyan 93CBelluzLuca Del Bel 83RWGarlandConor

Defence

1st pair3 min together
8DWerenskiZach 5DMateychukDenton
2nd pair6 min together
78DSeversonDamon 2DChristiansenJake
3rd pair5 min together
44DGudbransonErik 36DAndraeEmil

Goalies

How we read the lines: from the NHL’s shift charts, the three forwards and the two defencemen who shared the most 5-on-5 ice time, ranked by time on ice. Coaches shuffle lines often, so treat them as a guide until puck drop.

Matthew Knies: Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0; Adam Fantilli: Jenn G., CC BY-SA 2.5; Kent Johnson: Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0; Cole Sillinger: Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0; Charlie Coyle: Resolute, CC BY-SA 3.0; Mathieu Olivier: Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Dmitri Voronkov: Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0; Sean Monahan: Resolute, CC BY-SA 3.0; Valeri Nichushkin: Lisa Gansky from New York, NY, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0; Ryan Lomberg: TheAHL, CC BY 2.0; Conor Garland: Sandro Halank , Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Zach Werenski: Erik Drost, CC BY 2.0; Damon Severson: Lisa Gansky from New York, NY, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0; Jake Christiansen: Erik Drost, CC BY 2.0; Erik Gudbranson: Pens Through My Lens, CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Goalie duel

Projected

Projected from recent starts · confirmed at puck drop

Brandon Bussi CAR

.865 save percentage

3.27 GAA · 2–2–2 · 6 starts

Jet Greaves COL

.883 save percentage

3.34 GAA · 2–3–0 · 1 shutout · 5 starts

Teams do not name their goalie before the game. We expect the No. 1 unless his team played the night before, when the back-up usually starts; last season that call was right about two times in three. Our win chances do not depend on it.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

L. StankovenCAR · 7 G in 11 GP · 11 GP7532%3.10
S. AhoCAR · 7 G in 12 GP · 12 GP7530%3.31
M. JankowskiCAR · 6 G in 9 GP · 9 GP6229%3.41
A. SvechnikovCAR · 6 G in 12 GP · 12 GP6328%3.61
Kent JohnsonCOL · C · 4 G in 8 GP · 8 GP4324%4.09
N. EhlersCAR · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3720%4.99
Cole SillingerCOL · C · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3220%5.07
Adam FantilliCOL · C · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2216%6.33
Mathieu OlivierCOL · RW · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2015%6.70
Matthew KniesCOL · LW · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2015%6.88

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits: Kent Johnson: Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0; Cole Sillinger: Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0; Adam Fantilli: Jenn G., CC BY-SA 2.5; Mathieu Olivier: Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Matthew Knies: Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons

All NHL goal scorer picks today

Who will win Carolina Hurricanes vs Columbus Blue Jackets?

The numbers side with Carolina Hurricanes (66%) at home against Columbus Blue Jackets, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

Carolina Hurricanes have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 4.0 and allowing 3.2 goals a game over that stretch. Columbus Blue Jackets have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 2.0 and allowing 4.0 goals a game over that stretch.

Carolina Hurricanes sit 1st in the Eastern Conference, while Columbus Blue Jackets sit 16th in the Eastern Conference.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Carolina Hurricanes rate +0.41 and Columbus Blue Jackets −0.37 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.78 goals to Carolina Hurricanes. Home ice is worth about 0.25 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Carolina Hurricanes 56% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 19%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

Our own lines for this game: Carolina Hurricanes −1.5 on the puck line (40%) and 6.5 total goals, with the under at 54% (6.3 projected).

Carolina Hurricanes to win, overtime and shootout included (66%). Projected score: 3–2.