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Augsburger Panther vs Löwen Frankfurt prediction

Augsburger Panther5–6–0 · Home Löwen Frankfurt4–6–1 · Away07:30 PMOct 29

55%win chance incl. overtime45%

Our pick

55%AUG55%AUG

Augsburger Panther to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.83 · projected 3–2

The numbers side with Augsburger Panther (55%) at home against Löwen Frankfurt, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

After 60 minutes

AUGAugsburger Panther in 60'

45%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

LÖWLöwen Frankfurt in 60'

36%

Game flow

AUG 2.9 · LÖW 2.6 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.8–0.4

P2 · 1.2–0.9

P3 · 0.9–1.3

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Augsburger Panther55%1.83
Regulation result (60 minutes)Augsburger Panther45%2.24
Puck lineLöwen Frankfurt +1.571%1.40
Total goalsUnder 5.554%1.85
Both teams to scoreYes87%1.14

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Augsburger Panther

55%fair 1.83

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Augsburger Panther

45%fair 2.24

Puck line

Löwen Frankfurt +1.5

71%fair 1.40

Total goals

Under 5.5

54%fair 1.85

Both teams to score

Yes

87%fair 1.14

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

T. KoseLÖW · 4 G in 8 GP · 8 GP4327%3.68
E. UbaLÖW · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5125%4.05
D. BusdekerAUG · 5 G in 10 GP · 10 GP5224%4.14
P. KraussAUG · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4323%4.43
T. ParkesAUG · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4222%4.49
C. BraceLÖW · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3121%4.78
C. WrightAUG · 2 G in 7 GP · 7 GP2318%5.45
A. WagnerLÖW · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2218%5.62
M. EliasAUG · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2217%5.73
M. SchweigerLÖW · 1 G in 6 GP · 6 GP1114%7.01

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Augsburger Panther vs Löwen Frankfurt?

The numbers side with Augsburger Panther (55%) at home against Löwen Frankfurt, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

Augsburger Panther have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.4 and allowing 3.0 goals a game over that stretch. Löwen Frankfurt have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.0 and allowing 3.0 goals a game over that stretch.

Augsburger Panther sit 9th, while Löwen Frankfurt sit 12th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Augsburger Panther rate −0.09 and Löwen Frankfurt −0.06 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.03 goals to Löwen Frankfurt. Home ice is worth about 0.30 goals a game in this league.

About 20% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Augsburger Panther win it in regulation only 45% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 55%.

Our own lines for this game: Augsburger Panther −1.5 on the puck line (29%) and 5.5 total goals, with the under at 54% (5.6 projected).

Augsburger Panther to win, overtime and shootout included (55%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.