Liiga

Lukko vs KooKoo prediction

Lukko10–4–1 · Home KooKoo2–12–2 · Away06:30 PMOct 30

72%win chance incl. overtime28%

Our pick

72%LUK72%LUK

Lukko to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.38 · projected 3–2

The numbers side with Lukko (72%) at home against KooKoo, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

After 60 minutes

LUKLukko in 60'

63%

Tied → OTTied → OT

18%

KOOKooKoo in 60'

20%

Game flow

LUK 3.3 · KOO 1.9 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.2–0.6

P2 · 0.9–0.6

P3 · 1.2–0.7

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Lukko72%1.38
Regulation result (60 minutes)Lukko63%1.60
Puck lineKooKoo +1.555%1.83
Total goalsUnder 5.557%1.74
Both teams to scoreYes83%1.21

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Lukko

72%fair 1.38

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Lukko

63%fair 1.60

Puck line

KooKoo +1.5

55%fair 1.83

Total goals

Under 5.5

57%fair 1.74

Both teams to score

Yes

83%fair 1.21

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

F. RobertLUK · 7 G in 15 GP · 15 GP7633%3.03
A. SaarelaLUK · 6 G in 15 GP · 15 GP6728%3.54
A. BeaucageLUK · 6 G in 16 GP · 16 GP6327%3.69
T. HaapanenLUK · 4 G in 15 GP · 15 GP4220%4.96
V. MiettinenKOO · 6 G in 16 GP · 16 GP6620%5.02
H. LiedesLUK · 4 G in 15 GP · 15 GP4219%5.17
A. PelliKOO · 3 G in 6 GP · 6 GP3316%6.09
O. JaakolaKOO · 4 G in 14 GP · 14 GP4316%6.41
V. GalloKOO · 3 G in 14 GP · 14 GP3314%7.22
R. RoobaKOO · 3 G in 15 GP · 15 GP3213%7.73

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits: A. Saarela: kallerna, CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Who will win Lukko vs KooKoo?

The numbers side with Lukko (72%) at home against KooKoo, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

Lukko have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 2.8 and allowing 1.6 goals a game over that stretch. KooKoo have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 2.8 and allowing 3.8 goals a game over that stretch.

Lukko sit 2nd, while KooKoo sit 17th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Lukko rate +0.30 and KooKoo −0.67 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.97 goals to Lukko. Home ice is worth about 0.39 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Lukko 63% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 18%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

Our own lines for this game: Lukko −1.5 on the puck line (45%) and 5.5 total goals, with the under at 57% (5.4 projected).

Lukko to win, overtime and shootout included (72%). Projected score: 3–2.