Tampa Bay Lightning vs Winnipeg Jets prediction
Our pick
Tampa Bay Lightning to win
incl. overtime · fair odds 1.79 · projected 3–2
Tampa Bay Lightning are the pick at home against Winnipeg Jets: a 56% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.
After 60 minutes
Game flow
TAM 3.1 · WIN 2.7 expected goals in 60 minutes
Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).
Markets
- Moneyline (incl. overtime)Tampa Bay Lightning56%1.79
- Regulation result (60 minutes)Tampa Bay Lightning45%2.20
- Puck lineWinnipeg Jets +1.570%1.42
- Total goalsOver 5.551%1.94
- Both teams to scoreYes89%1.12
Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.
Lines
Lines from the last game · may change
Tampa Bay Lightning
Last game: Oct 23
1st line
7:52 together at 5-on-5
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Brayden Point LW | 20:50 | 1 | 7 | 8 |
| 59 | Jake Guentzel C | 22:12 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
| 93 | Gage Goncalves RW | 17:59 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
19 points this season
2nd line
9:16 together at 5-on-5
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | Brandon Hagel LW | 20:33 | 7 | 6 | 13 |
| 71 | Anthony Cirelli C | 17:19 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 86 | Nikita Kucherov RW | 20:43 | 4 | 8 | 12 |
30 points this season
3rd line
8:38 together at 5-on-5
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Pontus Holmberg LW | 11:59 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 28 | Zemgus Girgensons C | 12:55 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 95 | Ilya Mikheyev RW | 13:52 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
11 points this season
4th line: No such unit in that game.
1st pair
10:45 together at 5-on-5
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 51 | Charle-Edouard D'Astous D | 21:06 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 24 | Max Crozier D | 17:17 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
8 points this season
2nd pair
9:44 together at 5-on-5
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Ryan McDonagh D | 17:27 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 81 | Erik Černák D | 16:44 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
2 points this season
3rd pair
10:56 together at 5-on-5
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74 | John Carlson D | 18:15 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 90 | J.J. Moser D | 15:15 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
5 points this season
Power play unit 1
4:41 together on the power play
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59 | Jake Guentzel F | 22:12 | 6 | 4 | 10 |
| 21 | Brayden Point F | 20:50 | 1 | 7 | 8 |
| 86 | Nikita Kucherov F | 20:43 | 4 | 8 | 12 |
| 38 | Brandon Hagel F | 20:33 | 7 | 6 | 13 |
| 51 | Charle-Edouard D'Astous D | 21:06 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
48 points this season
Power play unit 2
1:09 together on the power play
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | Gage Goncalves F | 17:59 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 71 | Anthony Cirelli F | 17:19 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 94 | Conor Geekie F | 12:35 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Dominic James F | 12:28 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 74 | John Carlson D | 18:15 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
13 points this season
Penalty kill unit 1
1:23 together on the penalty kill
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95 | Ilya Mikheyev F | 13:52 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 28 | Zemgus Girgensons F | 12:55 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 27 | Ryan McDonagh D | 17:27 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 81 | Erik Černák D | 16:44 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
8 points this season
Penalty kill unit 2
0:39 together on the penalty kill
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | Brandon Hagel F | 20:33 | 7 | 6 | 13 |
| 71 | Anthony Cirelli F | 17:19 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 90 | J.J. Moser D | 15:15 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 77 | Victor Hedman D | 5:56 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
22 points this season
Goalies: Andrei Vasilevskiy #88 (Projected) · Dennis Hildeby #35 (Backup)
Winnipeg Jets
Last game: Oct 22
1st line
10:34 together at 5-on-5
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 81 | Kyle Connor LW | 23:02 | 9 | 3 | 12 |
| 55 | Mark Scheifele C | 23:40 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| 91 | Cole Perfetti RW | 19:00 | 6 | 2 | 8 |
27 points this season
2nd line
8:40 together at 5-on-5
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Brayden Yager LW | 14:38 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | Adam Lowry C | 16:37 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 27 | Isak Rosen RW | 15:18 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
5 points this season
3rd line
7:13 together at 5-on-5
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Alex Iafallo LW | 12:39 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 13 | Gabriel Vilardi C | 19:41 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 61 | Viggo Björck RW | 12:43 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
9 points this season
4th line
4:58 together at 5-on-5
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 93 | Brad Lambert LW | 7:10 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 36 | Morgan Barron C | 14:23 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 62 | Nino Niederreiter RW | 9:52 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
3 points this season
1st pair
14:42 together at 5-on-5
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Neal Pionk D | 29:42 | 1 | 7 | 8 |
| 54 | Dylan Samberg D | 22:19 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
11 points this season
2nd pair
11:24 together at 5-on-5
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Dylan Demelo D | 22:41 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 38 | Mario Ferraro D | 19:23 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
4 points this season
3rd pair
4:22 together at 5-on-5
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Haydn Fleury D | 14:10 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 77 | Tyrel Bauer D | 9:00 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
0 points this season
Power play unit 1
5:20 together on the power play
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 55 | Mark Scheifele F | 23:40 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| 81 | Kyle Connor F | 23:02 | 9 | 3 | 12 |
| 13 | Gabriel Vilardi F | 19:41 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 91 | Cole Perfetti F | 19:00 | 6 | 2 | 8 |
| 4 | Neal Pionk D | 29:42 | 1 | 7 | 8 |
39 points this season
Power play unit 2
1:41 together on the power play
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Isak Rosen F | 15:18 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 29 | Brayden Yager F | 14:38 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 61 | Viggo Björck F | 12:43 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 62 | Nino Niederreiter F | 9:52 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 | Haydn Fleury D | 14:10 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
1 points this season
Penalty kill unit 1
0:50 together on the penalty kill
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Adam Lowry F | 16:37 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 29 | Brayden Yager F | 14:38 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Dylan Demelo D | 22:41 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 38 | Mario Ferraro D | 19:23 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
8 points this season
Penalty kill unit 2
0:50 together on the penalty kill
| # | Player | TOI | G | A | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 | Brayden Yager F | 14:38 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 36 | Morgan Barron F | 14:23 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 4 | Neal Pionk D | 29:42 | 1 | 7 | 8 |
| 54 | Dylan Samberg D | 22:19 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
13 points this season
Goalies: Stuart Skinner #74 (Projected) · Clay Stevenson #33 (Backup)
Swipe the rink to switch units
How we read the lines
From the NHL’s shift charts, the three forwards and the two defencemen who shared the most 5-on-5 ice time, ranked by time on ice. Coaches shuffle lines often, so treat them as a guide until puck drop. Power-play and penalty-kill units: the five (on the power play) or four (on the penalty kill) skaters who were on the ice together the longest in that situation. TOI: ice time in that game. G, A, P: goals, assists and points this season.
Photo credits (20)
- Brayden Point · 5of7, CC BY-SA 2.0
- Jake Guentzel · Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 4.0
- Gage Goncalves · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
- Brandon Hagel · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 4.0
- Anthony Cirelli · Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 4.0
- Nikita Kucherov · Resolute, CC BY-SA 3.0
- Pontus Holmberg · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
- Zemgus Girgensons · Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 3.0
- Ilya Mikheyev · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
- Charle-Edouard D'Astous · Atrox1912, CC BY-SA 4.0
- Ryan McDonagh · Resolute, CC BY-SA 3.0
- Erik Černák · Ailura, CC BY-SA 3.0 at
- John Carlson · Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 3.0
- J.J. Moser · Quintin Soloviev, CC BY-SA 4.0
- Conor Geekie · Russ Alman, CC BY-SA 4.0
- Victor Hedman · Lisa Gansky from New York, NY, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0
- Andrei Vasilevskiy · Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 4.0
- Dennis Hildeby · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
- Stuart Skinner · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0
- Clay Stevenson · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Goalie duel
Projected
Goalie duelProjected from recent starts · confirmed at puck drop
Teams do not name their goalie before the game. We expect the No. 1 unless his team played the night before, when the back-up usually starts; last season that call was right about two times in three. Our win chances do not depend on it.
Photo credits (2)
- Andrei Vasilevskiy · Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 4.0
- Stuart Skinner · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0
Who scores
Anytime goal, overtime included
- Kyle ConnorWIN · LW · 9 G in 10 GP · 10 GP9439%2.57
Brandon HagelTAM · LW · 7 G in 9 GP · 9 GP7533%2.99
Jake GuentzelTAM · C · 6 G in 9 GP · 9 GP6531%3.23- Cole PerfettiWIN · C · 6 G in 10 GP · 10 GP6330%3.36
Nikita KucherovTAM · RW · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4523%4.33- Alex IafalloWIN · LW · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3321%4.78
Anthony CirelliTAM · C · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3320%4.89
John CarlsonTAM · D · 3 G in 9 GP · 9 GP3119%5.32- Mark ScheifeleWIN · C · 2 G in 7 GP · 7 GP2418%5.68
- Cole KoepkeWIN · LW · 1 G in 5 GP · 5 GP1113%7.64
The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.
Photo credits (5)
- Brandon Hagel · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 4.0
- Jake Guentzel · Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 4.0
- Nikita Kucherov · Resolute, CC BY-SA 3.0
- Anthony Cirelli · Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 4.0
- John Carlson · Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 3.0
Who will win Tampa Bay Lightning vs Winnipeg Jets?
Tampa Bay Lightning are the pick at home against Winnipeg Jets: a 56% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.
Tampa Bay Lightning have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.6 and allowing 3.4 goals a game over that stretch. Winnipeg Jets have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 2.6 and allowing 2.8 goals a game over that stretch.
Tampa Bay Lightning sit 4th in the Eastern Conference, while Winnipeg Jets sit 10th in the Western Conference.
Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Tampa Bay Lightning rate +0.14 and Winnipeg Jets +0.02 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.12 goals to Tampa Bay Lightning. Home ice is worth about 0.25 goals a game in this league.
About 21% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Tampa Bay Lightning win it in regulation only 45% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 56%.
Our own lines for this game: Tampa Bay Lightning −1.5 on the puck line (30%) and 5.5 total goals, with the over at 51% (6 projected).
Tampa Bay Lightning to win, overtime and shootout included (56%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.
Team leaders
- Points
- Goals
- Assists
- Penalty minutes
Season totals in this competition from the scoresheets so far (10 games per team); current squads only.
Photo credits (2)
- Brandon Hagel · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 4.0
- Nikita Kucherov · Resolute, CC BY-SA 3.0
Recent form
W win · OTL loss in overtime or a shootout · L loss in regulation
Head to head
No recent meetings on record.
Also scheduled
Other games that day
- · KHLNovosibirsk – Magnitogorsk62%
- · KHLYekaterinburg – Nizhny Novgorod50%
- · KHLCherepovets – Spartak Moscow54%
- · MestisIPK – KeuPa67%
- · MestisKettera – Pyry59%
- · MestisTUTO – K-Vantaa63%
- · SHLRögle – Malmö55%
- · SHLTimrå – Växjö54%
- · SHLSkellefteå – Linköping70%
- · DELAugsburger Panther – Löwen Frankfurt55%
- · National LeagueLugano – Lausanne54%
- · AHLHamilton Hammers – Hartford Wolf Pack54%
