AHL

Calgary Wranglers vs Laval Rocket prediction

Calgary Wranglers5–3–0 · Home Laval Rocket7–1–0 · Away09:00 PMOct 29

41%win chance incl. overtime59%

Our pick

59%LAV59%LAV

Laval Rocket to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.69 · projected 2–3

Our model makes Laval Rocket 59% favourites on the road against Calgary Wranglers, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

CALCalgary Wranglers in 60'

32%

Tied → OTTied → OT

19%

LAVLaval Rocket in 60'

50%

Game flow

CAL 2.8 · LAV 3.4 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.8–0.7

P2 · 1.3–1.3

P3 · 0.7–1.4

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Laval Rocket59%1.69
Regulation result (60 minutes)Laval Rocket50%2.02
Puck lineCalgary Wranglers +1.566%1.51
Total goalsUnder 6.553%1.87
Both teams to scoreYes91%1.10

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Laval Rocket

59%fair 1.69

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Laval Rocket

50%fair 2.02

Puck line

Calgary Wranglers +1.5

66%fair 1.51

Total goals

Under 6.5

53%fair 1.87

Both teams to score

Yes

91%fair 1.10

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

B. JonesCAL · 7 G in 8 GP · 8 GP7633%3.02
S. PastujovLAV · 6 G in 7 GP · 7 GP6532%3.08
R. WalshLAV · 5 G in 7 GP · 7 GP5529%3.46
R. KerinsCAL · 4 G in 7 GP · 7 GP4425%4.04
B. BerardLAV · 4 G in 7 GP · 7 GP4325%4.08
L. MittelstadtLAV · 4 G in 7 GP · 7 GP4824%4.09
F. MesarLAV · 3 G in 6 GP · 6 GP3522%4.46
S. MortonCAL · 3 G in 5 GP · 5 GP3521%4.73
A. HurtigCAL · 3 G in 7 GP · 7 GP3219%5.38
T. GrossCAL · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3518%5.43

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Calgary Wranglers vs Laval Rocket?

Our model makes Laval Rocket 59% favourites on the road against Calgary Wranglers, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

Calgary Wranglers have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 4.0 and allowing 4.0 goals a game over that stretch. Laval Rocket have won 5 of their last 5, scoring 4.6 and allowing 1.8 goals a game over that stretch.

Calgary Wranglers sit 2nd in the Pacific Division, while Laval Rocket sit 1st in the North Division.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Calgary Wranglers rate +0.14 and Laval Rocket +0.60 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.46 goals to Laval Rocket. Home ice is worth about -0.12 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Laval Rocket 50% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 19%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

Our own lines for this game: Laval Rocket −1.5 on the puck line (34%) and 6.5 total goals, with the under at 53% (6.3 projected).

Laval Rocket to win, overtime and shootout included (59%). Projected score: 3–2.