DEL2

Weiden vs Lausitzer Füchse prediction

Weiden4–5–2 · Home Lausitzer Füchse4–5–2 · Away06:30 PMOct 25

54%win chance incl. overtime46%

Our pick

54%WEI54%WEI

Weiden to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.86 · projected 3–2

Weiden are the pick at home against Lausitzer Füchse, with a 54% win probability including overtime and shootout, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

WEIWeiden in 60'

44%

Tied → OTTied → OT

19%

LAULausitzer Füchse in 60'

37%

Game flow

WEI 3.3 · LAU 3.0 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.8–0.9

P2 · 1.3–1.1

P3 · 1.1–1.0

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Weiden54%1.86
Regulation result (60 minutes)Weiden44%2.27
Puck lineLausitzer Füchse +1.571%1.41
Total goalsUnder 6.550%2.00
Both teams to scoreYes92%1.09

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Weiden

54%fair 1.86

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Weiden

44%fair 2.27

Puck line

Lausitzer Füchse +1.5

71%fair 1.41

Total goals

Under 6.5

50%fair 2.00

Both teams to score

Yes

92%fair 1.09

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

B. TraceyWEI · 9 G in 11 GP · 11 GP9539%2.59
J. Schmidt-SvejstrupLAU · 6 G in 10 GP · 10 GP6733%3.05
M. RegushWEI · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5830%3.35
A. VoyerWEI · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5428%3.56
C. JahnkeWEI · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4726%3.86
B. LemosLAU · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4424%4.19
J. BrodaLAU · 3 G in 9 GP · 9 GP3321%4.69
C. TheodoreLAU · 2 G in 6 GP · 6 GP2219%5.30
L. ScheidlLAU · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2217%5.72
N. PostelWEI · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2217%5.79

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Weiden vs Lausitzer Füchse?

Weiden are the pick at home against Lausitzer Füchse, with a 54% win probability including overtime and shootout, and a projected 3–2 score.

Weiden and Lausitzer Füchse arrive in near-identical form: Weiden have won 3 of their last 5 while scoring 3.8 and allowing 3.8 goals a game over that stretch, and Lausitzer Füchse have won 2 of their last 5 while scoring 3.2 and allowing 3.6. The table separates them by a single place, with Lausitzer Füchse 8th and Weiden 9th, so little on recent results or standings points to a clear favourite. The home side's win probability of 54% fits that picture: a lean, not a gap.

Once the opponents each side has faced are taken into account, the ratings tighten further. Weiden sit at −0.27 goals per game against an average team and Lausitzer Füchse at −0.19, an edge of 0.08 goals to Lausitzer Füchse. That small rating gap runs against the home side, but home ice is worth about 0.33 goals a game in this league, which more than offsets it and explains why the model still lands on Weiden.

Inside regulation the split is 44% for Weiden and 19% for a tie after three periods, with the tie handed to overtime and, if needed, a shootout. That structure is why the overall Weiden figure of 54% is higher than the regulation number: part of the home side's case is built on the extra period rather than on winning in 60 minutes. The projected 3–2 score reflects a game the model expects to stay close throughout.

The market's view of the winner is cautious rather than confident. At 54%, Weiden to win with overtime and shootout included is close to a coin flip, and the model itself treats the lean with care. Nothing in the form, the table or the ratings supports a comfortable home win, so the pick is a narrow one built on home ice and the overtime route.

The projected 3–2 score puts the game right on the 6.5 total, and the model gives the under 50% at that line, so the total is as close to even as it gets. On the puck line, Weiden −1.5 carries just 29%, which follows from a one-goal projected margin: covering the extra goal would require the home side to win by two or more. The 54% win probability and the 3–2 scoreline together describe a game the model sees decided late and by a single goal.

Weiden to win, overtime and shootout included, at 54%, with a projected score of 3–2.