AHL

Henderson Silver Knights vs Ontario Reign prediction

Henderson Silver Knights4–2–0 · Home Ontario Reign5–2–0 · Away10:00 PMOct 28

52%win chance incl. overtime48%

Our pick

52%HEN52%HEN

Henderson Silver Knights to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.91 · projected 3–2

The numbers side with Henderson Silver Knights (52%) at home against Ontario Reign, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

After 60 minutes

HENHenderson Silver Knights in 60'

42%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

ONTOntario Reign in 60'

38%

Game flow

HEN 2.9 · ONT 2.8 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.7–0.3

P2 · 1.3–1.2

P3 · 1.0–1.2

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Henderson Silver Knights52%1.91
Regulation result (60 minutes)Henderson Silver Knights42%2.36
Puck lineOntario Reign +1.573%1.37
Total goalsOver 5.551%1.97
Both teams to scoreYes89%1.12

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Henderson Silver Knights

52%fair 1.91

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Henderson Silver Knights

42%fair 2.36

Puck line

Ontario Reign +1.5

73%fair 1.37

Total goals

Over 5.5

51%fair 1.97

Both teams to score

Yes

89%fair 1.12

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who will win Henderson Silver Knights vs Ontario Reign?

The numbers side with Henderson Silver Knights (52%) at home against Ontario Reign, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

Henderson Silver Knights have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 2.4 and allowing 1.6 goals a game over that stretch. Ontario Reign have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 3.2 and allowing 2.8 goals a game over that stretch.

Henderson Silver Knights sit 5th in the Pacific Division, while Ontario Reign sit 3rd in the Pacific Division.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Henderson Silver Knights rate +0.15 and Ontario Reign −0.12 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.27 goals to Henderson Silver Knights. Home ice is worth about -0.12 goals a game in this league.

About 20% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Henderson Silver Knights win it in regulation only 42% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 52%.

These teams have met 1 time recently (Henderson Silver Knights 1, Ontario Reign 0); the latest finished Ontario Reign 2–5 Henderson Silver Knights on 2026-10-18.

Our own lines for this game: Henderson Silver Knights −1.5 on the puck line (27%) and 5.5 total goals, with the over at 51% (5.9 projected).

Henderson Silver Knights to win, overtime and shootout included (52%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.