National League

Zug vs Lugano prediction

Zug5–2–1 · Home Lugano6–6–1 · Away07:45 PMOct 27

60%win chance incl. overtime40%

Our pick

60%ZUG60%ZUG

Zug to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.67 · projected 3–2

Zug are the pick at home against Lugano: a 60% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

ZUGZug in 60'

50%

Tied → OTTied → OT

19%

LUGLugano in 60'

31%

Game flow

ZUG 3.3 · LUG 2.7 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.6–0.7

P2 · 1.4–1.2

P3 · 1.2–0.8

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Zug60%1.67
Regulation result (60 minutes)Zug50%2.00
Puck lineLugano +1.566%1.52
Total goalsOver 5.555%1.82
Both teams to scoreYes90%1.11

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Zug

60%fair 1.67

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Zug

50%fair 2.00

Puck line

Lugano +1.5

66%fair 1.52

Total goals

Over 5.5

55%fair 1.82

Both teams to score

Yes

90%fair 1.11

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

G. HofmannZUG · 4 G in 5 GP · 5 GP4434%2.96
J. InnalaLUG · 9 G in 13 GP · 13 GP9633%3.03
C. ThurkaufLUG · 7 G in 13 GP · 13 GP7426%3.86
S. SentelerZUG · 4 G in 8 GP · 8 GP4226%3.90
T. TatarZUG · 4 G in 8 GP · 8 GP4225%3.99
J. KovarZUG · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3322%4.52
V. RohrerZUG · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3122%4.57
L. FazziniLUG · 5 G in 13 GP · 13 GP5421%4.77
R. TannerLUG · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4219%5.21
N. ShoreLUG · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3517%6.00

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Zug vs Lugano?

Zug are the pick at home against Lugano: a 60% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

Zug have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 2.8 and allowing 2.2 goals a game over that stretch. Lugano have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.6 and allowing 3.2 goals a game over that stretch.

Zug sit 11th, while Lugano sit 10th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Zug rate +0.39 and Lugano +0.01 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.38 goals to Zug. Home ice is worth about 0.23 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Zug 50% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 19%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

These teams have met 1 time recently (Zug 0, Lugano 1); the latest finished Lugano 3–2 Zug on 2026-09-22.

Our own lines for this game: Zug −1.5 on the puck line (34%) and 5.5 total goals, with the over at 55% (6.2 projected).

Zug to win, overtime and shootout included (60%). Projected score: 3–2.