National League

Zurich vs Langnau Tigers prediction

Zurich12–1–0 · Home Langnau Tigers7–5–2 · Away05:45 PM UTCOct 23

69%win chance incl. overtime31%

Our pick

69%ZUR69%ZUR

Zurich to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.45 · projected 3–2

Zurich are the pick at home against Langnau Tigers, with a 69% chance to win including overtime and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

ZURZurich in 60'

58%

Tied → OTTied → OT

19%

LANLangnau Tigers in 60'

23%

Game flow

ZUR 3.4 · LAN 2.8 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.0–0.8

P2 · 1.1–0.9

P3 · 1.3–1.1

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Zurich69%1.45
Regulation result (60 minutes)Zurich58%1.73
Puck lineLangnau Tigers +1.556%1.78
Total goalsOver 5.554%1.85
Both teams to scoreYes87%1.15

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Zurich

69%fair 1.45

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Zurich

58%fair 1.73

Puck line

Langnau Tigers +1.5

56%fair 1.78

Total goals

Over 5.5

54%fair 1.85

Both teams to score

Yes

87%fair 1.15

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

S. KnakZUR · 9 G in 13 GP · 13 GP9432%3.10
J. SchmutzLAN · 7 G in 14 GP · 14 GP7426%3.79
C. BaltisbergerZUR · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4321%4.80
J. FrodenZUR · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4320%4.91
S. MaenalanenLAN · 5 G in 13 GP · 13 GP5220%4.96
D. MalginZUR · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4519%5.30
J. BachofnerLAN · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4419%5.40
R. BalcersZUR · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4317%5.74
J. DahlenLAN · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4217%5.83
E. PetterssonLAN · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3015%6.56

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Zurich vs Langnau Tigers?

Zurich are the pick at home against Langnau Tigers, with a 69% chance to win including overtime and a projected 3–2 score.

Zurich carry the stronger case into this National League meeting, and the numbers back it up. They have won 4 of their last 5 while scoring 4.2 and allowing 2.6 goals a game, a scoring rate Langnau Tigers have not matched over the same stretch. Langnau Tigers have won 2 of their last 5 and sit level at 2.6 scored and 2.6 allowed, so their recent form is steady rather than threatening.

The table reinforces the gap: Zurich are 1st and Langnau Tigers are 4th. Adjusted for the opponents each side has faced, Zurich rate +0.54 goals per game against an average team and Langnau Tigers +0.17, an edge of 0.36 goals to Zurich before home ice is added. Home ice is worth about 0.23 goals a game in this league, which pushes the home side further clear.

The head-to-head sample is small, just 1 recent meeting, and it went Zurich's way, the latest finishing Langnau Tigers 3–4 Zurich on 2026-09-18. The market sees the same picture: once the bookmaker margin is removed, Zurich are priced at 73% on the moneyline across 9 bookmakers, close to our own read. About 19% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Zurich win it in regulation only 58% of the time on our numbers, with overtime and the shootout making up the rest of the 69%.

For Langnau Tigers, the case rests on keeping the game tight and getting it past regulation, where that 19% share of level games after 60 minutes gives them a route. Their recent goal balance of 2.6 scored and 2.6 allowed suggests they are not easy to blow out, even if they lack Zurich's scoring output. The ratings and the table still point one way, and the market price agrees with the model rather than with the underdog.

The projected 3–2 score sits right on the edge of the puck line, and Zurich −1.5 comes in 44% of the time on our numbers, so a one-goal Zurich win would not cover it. The total is a different story: the projection of 6.4 goals is above the 5.5 line, and the over 5.5 goals lands 54% against that projection. The moneyline price of 73% from 9 bookmakers sits close to our 69%, leaving little disagreement between the market and the model on the winner.

Zurich to win, overtime and shootout included (69%), with a projected 3–2 score.