National League

Fribourg vs Biel prediction

Fribourg7–4–2 · Home Biel5–7–1 · Away05:45 PM UTCOct 23

69%win chance incl. overtime31%

Our pick

69%FRI69%FRI

Fribourg to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.45 · projected 3–2

Fribourg are the pick at home against Biel, with a 69% chance to win including overtime and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

FRIFribourg in 60'

58%

Tied → OTTied → OT

19%

BIEBiel in 60'

23%

Game flow

FRI 3.4 · BIE 2.6 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.9–1.0

P2 · 1.2–1.1

P3 · 1.3–0.6

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Fribourg69%1.45
Regulation result (60 minutes)Fribourg58%1.73
Puck lineBiel +1.555%1.83
Total goalsUnder 6.553%1.87
Both teams to scoreYes88%1.14

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Fribourg

69%fair 1.45

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Fribourg

58%fair 1.73

Puck line

Biel +1.5

55%fair 1.83

Total goals

Under 6.5

53%fair 1.87

Both teams to score

Yes

88%fair 1.14

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

C. BertschyFRI · 9 G in 13 GP · 13 GP9739%2.55
J. SkinnerBIE · 7 G in 13 GP · 13 GP7427%3.76
S. SchmidFRI · 6 G in 13 GP · 13 GP6426%3.88
H. BorgstromFRI · 3 G in 6 GP · 6 GP3524%4.10
N. MarchonFRI · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4122%4.53
Y. RathgebFRI · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3519%5.18
G. HaasBIE · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4218%5.65
M. SeverBIE · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3418%5.68
T. RajalaBIE · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3316%6.21
J. NeuenschwanderBIE · 2 G in 7 GP · 7 GP2316%6.34

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Fribourg vs Biel?

Fribourg are the pick at home against Biel, with a 69% chance to win including overtime and a projected 3–2 score.

Fribourg hold fifth place and Biel twelfth, and the underlying numbers widen that gap: adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Fribourg rate +0.37 goals per game against an average team while Biel sit at −0.17, a 0.54-goal edge before home ice is counted. Home ice is worth about 0.23 goals a game in this league, so the model's lean toward the home side is built on more than the table. Both teams have won 2 of their last 5, but Fribourg scored 4.0 and allowed 2.6 over that stretch against Biel's 2.6 scored and 3.4 allowed, which points to a side that creates more and concedes less.

The recent head-to-head is a note of caution for the home side: the teams have met 1 time recently and Biel took it, 4–2 on 2026-09-15. That single result is the underdog's case, along with the fact that this is a low-scoring league profile where about 19% of games like this are level after 60 minutes. That is why Fribourg win in regulation only 58% of the time on our numbers, with overtime and the shootout making up the rest of the 69%.

The market broadly agrees with the model. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, the moneyline across 9 bookmakers prices Fribourg at 72%, close to our 69%. The projected 3–2 score fits that read: a one-goal home win that leaves room for Biel to stay close and for the game to extend past regulation.

The projected 3–2 score implies a one-goal margin, and against the lines Fribourg −1.5 on the puck line comes in 45% of the time, so the model does not expect the home side to pull clear. The projected 6.3 goals sit just under the 6.5 line, and the under lands 53% on our numbers, a thin edge rather than a strong one.

Fribourg to win, overtime and shootout included, at 69%, with a projected 3–2 score.