NHL

Chicago Blackhawks vs Florida Panthers prediction

Chicago Blackhawks3–7–0 · Home Florida Panthers5–4–2 · Away03:00 PMOct 25

46%win chance incl. overtime54%

Our pick

54%FLO54%FLO

Florida Panthers to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.85 · projected 2–3

Florida Panthers are the pick to win, overtime and shootout included, at 54% probability with a projected 3–2 scoreline.

After 60 minutes

CHIChicago Blackhawks in 60'

36%

Tied → OTTied → OT

21%

FLOFlorida Panthers in 60'

44%

Game flow

CHI 2.8 · FLO 3.0 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.1–0.7

P2 · 0.8–1.2

P3 · 0.9–1.1

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Florida Panthers54%1.85
Regulation result (60 minutes)Florida Panthers44%2.29
Puck lineChicago Blackhawks +1.572%1.40
Total goalsOver 5.553%1.90
Both teams to scoreYes90%1.11

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Florida Panthers

54%fair 1.85

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Florida Panthers

44%fair 2.29

Puck line

Chicago Blackhawks +1.5

72%fair 1.40

Total goals

Over 5.5

53%fair 1.90

Both teams to score

Yes

90%fair 1.11

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Lines

Lines from the last game · may change

Chicago Blackhawks

Last game: Oct 23

1st line

7:30 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
80	Roman Kantserov LW	16:52	3	0	3
98	Connor Bedard C	16:28	2	2	4
88	Patrick Kane RW	17:17	1	5	6

13 points this season

59BertuzziLW AF16FrondellC

86TeräväinenRW

2nd line

3:49 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
59	Tyler Bertuzzi LW	14:35	2	3	5
16	Anton Frondell C	12:56	1	5	6
86	Teuvo Teräväinen RW	12:44	2	3	5

16 points this season

8DonatoLW

91NazarC

11MooreRW

3rd line

6:48 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
8	Ryan Donato LW	12:07	2	1	3
91	Frank Nazar C	15:54	3	1	4
11	Oliver Moore RW	10:27	2	1	3

10 points this season

12GreenwayLW RG20GreeneC CS22SmithRW

4th line

7:15 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
12	Jordan Greenway LW	11:06	1	0	1
20	Ryan Greene C	9:49	0	2	2
22	Cole Smith RW	10:18	1	1	2

5 points this season

72VlasicD

28ColeD

1st pair

10:52 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
72	Alex Vlasic D	17:59	0	2	2
28	Ian Cole D	17:03	0	0	0

2 points this season

44KaiserD

55LevshunovD

2nd pair

10:59 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
44	Wyatt Kaiser D	15:13	0	3	3
55	Artyom Levshunov D	14:57	1	2	3

6 points this season

6RinzelD

38MastroD

3rd pair

7:17 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
6	Sam Rinzel D	14:24	1	1	2
38	Ethan Del Mastro D	9:09	0	0	0

2 points this season

88KaneF RK80KantserovF

98BedardF

59BertuzziF

86TeräväinenF

Power play unit 1

4:40 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
88	Patrick Kane F	17:17	1	5	6
80	Roman Kantserov F	16:52	3	0	3
98	Connor Bedard F	16:28	2	2	4
59	Tyler Bertuzzi F	14:35	2	3	5
86	Teuvo Teräväinen F	12:44	2	3	5

23 points this season

91NazarF AF16FrondellF

8DonatoF

11MooreF

6RinzelD

Power play unit 2

2:30 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
91	Frank Nazar F	15:54	3	1	4
16	Anton Frondell F	12:56	1	5	6
8	Ryan Donato F	12:07	2	1	3
11	Oliver Moore F	10:27	2	1	3
6	Sam Rinzel D	14:24	1	1	2

18 points this season

Penalty kill unit 1

0:57 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
91	Frank Nazar F	15:54	3	1	4
12	Jordan Greenway F	11:06	1	0	1
72	Alex Vlasic D	17:59	0	2	2
28	Ian Cole D	17:03	0	0	0

7 points this season

Penalty kill unit 2: No such unit in that game.

Goalies: Spencer Knight #30 (Projected) · Arvid Söderblom #40 (Backup)

Florida Panthers

Last game: Oct 22

GMarkstromProjected

LE20EllerLW SR13ReinhartC CV23VerhaegheRW

1st line

6:57 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
20	Lars Eller LW	19:29	0	5	5
13	Sam Reinhart C	20:29	5	3	8
23	Carter Verhaeghe RW	17:47	6	1	7

20 points this season

19TkachukLW SB9BennettC BT8TkachukRW

2nd line

10:11 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
19	Matthew Tkachuk LW	18:17	3	11	14
9	Sam Bennett C	18:58	3	3	6
8	Brady Tkachuk RW	17:22	7	3	10

30 points this season

CR29ReinhardtLW AL15LundellC EL27LuostarinenRW

3rd line

4:26 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
29	Cole Reinhardt LW	10:03	0	0	0
15	Anton Lundell C	17:01	1	2	3
27	Eetu Luostarinen RW	16:44	2	0	2

5 points this season

BI14ImamaLW

79SchwindtC GH21HathawayRW

4th line

7:17 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI
14	Bokondji Imama LW	9:31
79	Cole Schwindt C	9:39
21	Garnet Hathaway RW	9:50

0 points this season

SJ3JonesD NM77MikkolaD

1st pair

14:30 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
3	Seth Jones D	23:03	1	10	11
77	Niko Mikkola D	20:09	1	1	2

13 points this season

AE5EkbladD GF42ForslingD

2nd pair

14:03 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
5	Aaron Ekblad D	21:25	0	3	3
42	Gustav Forsling D	18:51	1	1	2

5 points this season

UB26BalinskisD DK7KulikovD

3rd pair

10:17 together at 5-on-5

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
26	Uvis Balinskis D	14:09	0	1	1
7	Dmitry Kulikov D	14:08	0	2	2

3 points this season

SR13ReinhartF SB9BennettF

19TkachukF

BT8TkachukF SJ3JonesD

Power play unit 1

1:25 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
13	Sam Reinhart F	20:29	5	3	8
9	Sam Bennett F	18:58	3	3	6
19	Matthew Tkachuk F	18:17	3	11	14
8	Brady Tkachuk F	17:22	7	3	10
3	Seth Jones D	23:03	1	10	11

49 points this season

LE20EllerF SB9BennettF AL15LundellF

EL27LuostarinenF AE5EkbladD

Power play unit 2

0:49 together on the power play

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
20	Lars Eller F	19:29	0	5	5
9	Sam Bennett F	18:58	3	3	6
15	Anton Lundell F	17:01	1	2	3
27	Eetu Luostarinen F	16:44	2	0	2
5	Aaron Ekblad D	21:25	0	3	3

19 points this season

AL15LundellF EL27LuostarinenF

AE5EkbladD GF42ForslingD

Penalty kill unit 1

1:35 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
15	Anton Lundell F	17:01	1	2	3
27	Eetu Luostarinen F	16:44	2	0	2
5	Aaron Ekblad D	21:25	0	3	3
42	Gustav Forsling D	18:51	1	1	2

10 points this season

SR13ReinhartF

79SchwindtF

SJ3JonesD NM77MikkolaD

Penalty kill unit 2

0:33 together on the penalty kill

#	Player	TOI	G	A	P
13	Sam Reinhart F	20:29	5	3	8
79	Cole Schwindt F	9:39	0	0	0
3	Seth Jones D	23:03	1	10	11
77	Niko Mikkola D	20:09	1	1	2

21 points this season

Goalies: Jacob Markstrom (Projected) · Cooper Black #31 (Backup)

Swipe the rink to switch units

How we read the lines

From the NHL’s shift charts, the three forwards and the two defencemen who shared the most 5-on-5 ice time, ranked by time on ice. Coaches shuffle lines often, so treat them as a guide until puck drop. Power-play and penalty-kill units: the five (on the power play) or four (on the penalty kill) skaters who were on the ice together the longest in that situation. TOI: ice time in that game. G, A, P: goals, assists and points this season.

Photo credits (20)

Connor Bedard · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Patrick Kane · Lisa Gansky from New York, NY, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Tyler Bertuzzi · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Teuvo Teräväinen · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Ryan Donato · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0
Frank Nazar · Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Oliver Moore · Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Jordan Greenway · Surveytrevor, CC BY-SA 4.0
Alex Vlasic · Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Ian Cole · Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 4.0
Wyatt Kaiser · Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Artyom Levshunov · Trevor Cokley (U.S. Air Force Academy), Public domain
Sam Rinzel · SecretName101, CC BY 4.0
Ethan Del Mastro · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0
Spencer Knight · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0
Arvid Söderblom · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0
Matthew Tkachuk · Jfvoll, CC BY-SA 4.0
Cole Schwindt · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Akira Schmid · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0
Jacob Markstrom · Tlop2000, CC BY-SA 4.0

Goalie duel

Projected

Projected from recent starts · confirmed at puck drop

Spencer Knight CHI

.888 save percentage

3.52 GAA · 3–5–0 · 8 starts

Jacob Markstrom FLO

.897 save percentage

2.21 GAA · 3–1–1 · 1 shutout · 6 starts

Teams do not name their goalie before the game. We expect the No. 1 unless his team played the night before, when the back-up usually starts; last season that call was right about two times in three. Our win chances do not depend on it.

Photo credits (2)

Spencer Knight · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0
Jacob Markstrom · Tlop2000, CC BY-SA 4.0

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

Brady TkachukFLO · LW · 7 G in 11 GP · 11 GP7936%2.80
Carter VerhaegheFLO · C · 6 G in 9 GP · 9 GP6633%3.03
Sam ReinhartFLO · C · 5 G in 6 GP · 6 GP5631%3.25
Roman KantserovCHI · RW · 3 G in 7 GP · 7 GP3323%4.36
Frank NazarCHI · C · 3 G in 9 GP · 9 GP3121%4.70
Sam BennettFLO · C · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3321%4.75
Matthew TkachukFLO · LW · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3918%5.55
Teuvo TeräväinenCHI · C · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2317%5.79
Ryan DonatoCHI · C · 2 G in 9 GP · 9 GP2217%6.00
Tyler BertuzziCHI · LW · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2316%6.09

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits (5)

Frank Nazar · Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0
Matthew Tkachuk · Jfvoll, CC BY-SA 4.0
Teuvo Teräväinen · Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0
Ryan Donato · Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0
Tyler Bertuzzi · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0

All NHL goal scorer picks today

Who will win Chicago Blackhawks vs Florida Panthers?

Florida Panthers are the pick to win, overtime and shootout included, at 54% probability with a projected 3–2 scoreline.

Florida Panthers carry a modest edge into Chicago Blackhawks territory, and the model puts it at 54% once overtime and the shootout are folded in. That is barely more than a coin flip, so the lean deserves caution rather than conviction. The projected 3–2 final fits a game that could easily tip either way.

Recent form points the same direction. Florida Panthers have won 3 of their last 5 while averaging 3.8 goals scored and 3.4 allowed, a livelier attack than Chicago Blackhawks have managed. Chicago Blackhawks have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.4 and conceding 3.8 per game over that stretch, so the home side has been giving up more than it creates.

The table separates them too: Florida Panthers sit 9th in the Eastern Conference, Chicago Blackhawks 14th in the Western Conference. Adjusted for opposition, Florida Panthers rate −0.06 goals per game against an average team and Chicago Blackhawks −0.56, an edge of 0.50 goals to Florida Panthers. Home ice is worth about 0.23 goals a game in this league, which narrows but does not erase that gap.

The market still sees a tight one. About 21% of games like this are level after 60 minutes, which is why Florida Panthers win in regulation only 44% of the time on our numbers, with overtime and the shootout supplying the rest of the 54%. Chicago Blackhawks' case rests on home ice and the thinness of the margin rather than on form or ratings.

The projected 3–2 scoreline leaves Florida Panthers −1.5 on the puck line at just 29%, since a one-goal win would not cover it. On the total, the model sets the line at 5.5 goals with the over at 52% and 6 projected, a slight nod toward a higher-scoring night than the 3–2 pick alone suggests. Both numbers describe a game where the winner is favoured but the margins are small.

Florida Panthers to win, overtime and shootout included, at 54%, with a projected 3–2 score.