Liiga

TPS vs Pelicans prediction

TPS9–5–1 · Home Pelicans6–6–1 · Away06:30 PMOct 30

60%win chance incl. overtime40%

Our pick

60%TPS60%TPS

TPS to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.65 · projected 3–2

The numbers side with TPS (60%) at home against Pelicans, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

After 60 minutes

TPSTPS in 60'

50%

Tied → OTTied → OT

21%

PELPelicans in 60'

30%

Game flow

TPS 2.7 · PEL 2.1 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.7–0.7

P2 · 0.9–0.7

P3 · 1.1–0.8

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)TPS60%1.65
Regulation result (60 minutes)TPS50%2.02
Puck linePelicans +1.568%1.47
Total goalsOver 4.560%1.67
Both teams to scoreYes83%1.21

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

TPS

60%fair 1.65

Regulation result (60 minutes)

TPS

50%fair 2.02

Puck line

Pelicans +1.5

68%fair 1.47

Total goals

Over 4.5

60%fair 1.67

Both teams to score

Yes

83%fair 1.21

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

L. BryggmanTPS · 8 G in 16 GP · 16 GP8527%3.67
L. WernblomTPS · 7 G in 16 GP · 16 GP7325%4.01
A. DudasPEL · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5622%4.57
J. VirtanenTPS · 5 G in 16 GP · 16 GP5422%4.58
L. HaudumTPS · 5 G in 16 GP · 16 GP5220%5.09
G. FortierPEL · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3419%5.39
O. PaajanenTPS · 4 G in 16 GP · 16 GP4317%5.91
A. KettunenPEL · 3 G in 13 GP · 13 GP3315%6.87
O. MyklukhaPEL · 3 G in 13 GP · 13 GP3213%7.59
R. KarvinenPEL · 3 G in 13 GP · 13 GP3113%7.62

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win TPS vs Pelicans?

The numbers side with TPS (60%) at home against Pelicans, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

TPS have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 3.4 and allowing 2.8 goals a game over that stretch. Pelicans have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.6 and allowing 2.4 goals a game over that stretch.

TPS sit 6th, while Pelicans sit 12th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, TPS rate +0.20 and Pelicans −0.04 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.23 goals to TPS. Home ice is worth about 0.36 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives TPS 50% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 21%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

Our own lines for this game: TPS −1.5 on the puck line (32%) and 4.5 total goals, with the over at 60% (5 projected).

TPS to win, overtime and shootout included (60%). Projected score: 3–2.