KHL

Shanghai vs Barys Astana prediction

Shanghai11–4–2 · Home Barys Astana10–7–1 · Away07:30 PMOct 30

51%win chance incl. overtime49%

Our pick

51%SHA51%SHA

Shanghai to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.95 · projected 3–2

The numbers side with Shanghai (51%) at home against Barys Astana, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

After 60 minutes

SHAShanghai in 60'

41%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

BARBarys Astana in 60'

39%

Game flow

SHA 2.9 · BAR 2.8 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.7–0.8

P2 · 1.2–0.9

P3 · 1.0–1.1

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Shanghai51%1.95
Regulation result (60 minutes)Shanghai41%2.42
Puck lineBarys Astana +1.574%1.35
Total goalsUnder 5.551%1.97
Both teams to scoreYes89%1.13

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Shanghai

51%fair 1.95

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Shanghai

41%fair 2.42

Puck line

Barys Astana +1.5

74%fair 1.35

Total goals

Under 5.5

51%fair 1.97

Both teams to score

Yes

89%fair 1.13

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

B. MurraySHA · 9 G in 16 GP · 16 GP9632%3.12
J. BaileyBAR · 12 G in 18 GP · 18 GP12532%3.17
T. ThompsonBAR · 8 G in 17 GP · 17 GP8125%3.94
D. JaskinSHA · 8 G in 17 GP · 17 GP8325%3.97
D. ChenSHA · 6 G in 17 GP · 17 GP6425%4.02
S. SimonovBAR · 7 G in 18 GP · 18 GP7121%4.73
R. SutterSHA · 5 G in 13 GP · 13 GP5420%4.90
G. PilonBAR · 6 G in 18 GP · 18 GP6218%5.71
M. MorelliBAR · 4 G in 18 GP · 18 GP4416%6.36
V. BarulinSHA · 2 G in 12 GP · 12 GP2315%6.74

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits (2)

G. Pilon · Hockeywithry, CC BY 4.0
M. Morelli · TheAHL, CC BY 2.0

Who will win Shanghai vs Barys Astana?

The numbers side with Shanghai (51%) at home against Barys Astana, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

Shanghai have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.2 and allowing 2.4 goals a game over that stretch. Barys Astana have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.6 and allowing 2.8 goals a game over that stretch.

Shanghai sit 5th in the Western Conference, while Barys Astana sit 3rd in the Eastern Conference.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Shanghai rate +0.24 and Barys Astana +0.28 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.05 goals to Barys Astana. Home ice is worth about 0.13 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Shanghai 41% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 20%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

Our own lines for this game: Shanghai −1.5 on the puck line (26%) and 5.5 total goals, with the under at 51% (5.8 projected).

Shanghai to win, overtime and shootout included (51%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.