DEL2

Weiden vs Landshut prediction

Weiden4–5–2 · Home Landshut6–3–2 · Away08:00 PMOct 30

50%win chance incl. overtime50%

Our pick

50%LAN50%LAN

Landshut to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.99 · projected 3–4

Landshut are the pick on the road against Weiden: a 50% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 4–3 score.

After 60 minutes

WEIWeiden in 60'

40%

Tied → OTTied → OT

19%

LANLandshut in 60'

41%

Game flow

WEI 3.3 · LAN 3.3 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.1–1.1

P2 · 1.1–1.1

P3 · 1.1–1.2

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Landshut50%1.99
Regulation result (60 minutes)Landshut41%2.45
Puck lineWeiden +1.573%1.37
Total goalsOver 6.554%1.85
Both teams to scoreYes93%1.08

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Landshut

50%fair 1.99

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Landshut

41%fair 2.45

Puck line

Weiden +1.5

73%fair 1.37

Total goals

Over 6.5

54%fair 1.85

Both teams to score

Yes

93%fair 1.08

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

B. TraceyWEI · 9 G in 11 GP · 11 GP9538%2.60
D. StielerLAN · 6 G in 11 GP · 11 GP6530%3.30
M. RegushWEI · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5830%3.36
A. VoyerWEI · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5428%3.57
M. RoyLAN · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5827%3.65
C. JahnkeWEI · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4726%3.87
T. ImmoLAN · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5526%3.87
T. GoochLAN · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4924%4.10
T. SchwarzLAN · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3423%4.36
N. PostelWEI · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2217%5.81

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Weiden vs Landshut?

Landshut are the pick on the road against Weiden: a 50% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 4–3 score.

Weiden have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.8 and allowing 3.8 goals a game over that stretch. Landshut have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.8 and allowing 3.0 goals a game over that stretch.

Weiden sit 10th, while Landshut sit 3rd.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Weiden rate −0.26 and Landshut +0.08 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.35 goals to Landshut. Home ice is worth about 0.33 goals a game in this league.

About 19% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Landshut win it in regulation only 41% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 50%.

Our own lines for this game: Landshut −1.5 on the puck line (27%) and 6.5 total goals, with the over at 54% (6.8 projected).

Landshut to win, overtime and shootout included (50%). Projected score: 4–3. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.