AHL

San Jose Barracuda vs Abbotsford Canucks prediction

San Jose Barracuda3–4–0 · Home Abbotsford Canucks3–2–1 · Away10:00 PMOct 28

44%win chance incl. overtime56%

Our pick

56%ABB56%ABB

Abbotsford Canucks to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.77 · projected 3–4

The numbers side with Abbotsford Canucks (56%) on the road against San Jose Barracuda, with 4–3 the most likely final score.

After 60 minutes

SANSan Jose Barracuda in 60'

35%

Tied → OTTied → OT

18%

ABBAbbotsford Canucks in 60'

47%

Game flow

SAN 3.1 · ABB 3.5 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.9–1.1

P2 · 1.3–1.5

P3 · 1.0–0.9

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Abbotsford Canucks56%1.77
Regulation result (60 minutes)Abbotsford Canucks47%2.13
Puck lineSan Jose Barracuda +1.568%1.48
Total goalsOver 6.555%1.81
Both teams to scoreYes93%1.07

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Abbotsford Canucks

56%fair 1.77

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Abbotsford Canucks

47%fair 2.13

Puck line

San Jose Barracuda +1.5

68%fair 1.48

Total goals

Over 6.5

55%fair 1.81

Both teams to score

Yes

93%fair 1.07

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who will win San Jose Barracuda vs Abbotsford Canucks?

The numbers side with Abbotsford Canucks (56%) on the road against San Jose Barracuda, with 4–3 the most likely final score.

San Jose Barracuda have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 3.8 and allowing 4.6 goals a game over that stretch. Abbotsford Canucks have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 4.2 and allowing 3.6 goals a game over that stretch.

San Jose Barracuda sit 9th in the Pacific Division, while Abbotsford Canucks sit 8th in the Pacific Division.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, San Jose Barracuda rate −0.23 and Abbotsford Canucks +0.06 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.29 goals to Abbotsford Canucks. Home ice is worth about -0.12 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Abbotsford Canucks 47% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 18%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

Our own lines for this game: Abbotsford Canucks −1.5 on the puck line (32%) and 6.5 total goals, with the over at 55% (6.9 projected).

Abbotsford Canucks to win, overtime and shootout included (56%). Projected score: 4–3. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.