DEL2

Starbulls Rosenheim vs Crimmitschau prediction

Starbulls Rosenheim4–7–0 · Home Crimmitschau6–4–1 · Away07:30 PMOct 30

50%win chance incl. overtime50%

Our pick

50%STA50%STA

Starbulls Rosenheim to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.98 · projected 3–2

Starbulls Rosenheim are the pick at home against Crimmitschau: a 50% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

STAStarbulls Rosenheim in 60'

40%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

CRICrimmitschau in 60'

40%

Game flow

STA 3.0 · CRI 2.9 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.0–0.8

P2 · 0.7–1.0

P3 · 1.3–1.1

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Starbulls Rosenheim50%1.98
Regulation result (60 minutes)Starbulls Rosenheim40%2.47
Puck lineCrimmitschau +1.574%1.35
Total goalsOver 5.554%1.85
Both teams to scoreYes90%1.11

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Starbulls Rosenheim

50%fair 1.98

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Starbulls Rosenheim

40%fair 2.47

Puck line

Crimmitschau +1.5

74%fair 1.35

Total goals

Over 5.5

54%fair 1.85

Both teams to score

Yes

90%fair 1.11

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

L. BruneCRI · 7 G in 11 GP · 11 GP7831%3.18
S. FeserSTA · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5627%3.65
J. KarkiCRI · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4722%4.47
A. McCormickCRI · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4722%4.50
L. Zerter-GossageSTA · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3322%4.60
K. MastrodonatoSTA · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4322%4.62
J. BelleriveSTA · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4221%4.67
C. AdamsCRI · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4321%4.67
L. WillCRI · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4521%4.69
F. DietzSTA · 3 G in 9 GP · 9 GP3321%4.87

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Starbulls Rosenheim vs Crimmitschau?

Starbulls Rosenheim are the pick at home against Crimmitschau: a 50% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

Starbulls Rosenheim have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 3.4 and allowing 3.6 goals a game over that stretch. Crimmitschau have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.6 and allowing 2.4 goals a game over that stretch.

Starbulls Rosenheim sit 13th, while Crimmitschau sit 4th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Starbulls Rosenheim rate −0.08 and Crimmitschau +0.22 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.30 goals to Crimmitschau. Home ice is worth about 0.33 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Starbulls Rosenheim 40% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 20%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

Our own lines for this game: Starbulls Rosenheim −1.5 on the puck line (26%) and 5.5 total goals, with the over at 54% (6.1 projected).

Starbulls Rosenheim to win, overtime and shootout included (50%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.