AHL

Coachella Valley Firebirds vs Tucson Roadrunners prediction

Coachella Valley Firebirds3–2–3 · Home Tucson Roadrunners3–2–1 · Away10:00 PMOct 28

45%win chance incl. overtime55%

Our pick

55%TUC55%TUC

Tucson Roadrunners to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.82 · projected 2–3

The numbers side with Tucson Roadrunners (55%) on the road against Coachella Valley Firebirds, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

After 60 minutes

COACoachella Valley Firebirds in 60'

36%

Tied → OTTied → OT

19%

TUCTucson Roadrunners in 60'

45%

Game flow

COA 2.9 · TUC 3.3 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.8–1.2

P2 · 1.3–1.5

P3 · 0.8–0.6

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Tucson Roadrunners55%1.82
Regulation result (60 minutes)Tucson Roadrunners45%2.20
Puck lineCoachella Valley Firebirds +1.570%1.43
Total goalsUnder 6.552%1.91
Both teams to scoreYes91%1.10

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Tucson Roadrunners

55%fair 1.82

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Tucson Roadrunners

45%fair 2.20

Puck line

Coachella Valley Firebirds +1.5

70%fair 1.43

Total goals

Under 6.5

52%fair 1.91

Both teams to score

Yes

91%fair 1.10

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

J. NymanCOA · 8 G in 8 GP · 8 GP8337%2.72
J. AvonCOA · 4 G in 8 GP · 8 GP4324%4.11
L. MorrisonCOA · 3 G in 6 GP · 6 GP3423%4.39
L. RoedCOA · 2 G in 5 GP · 5 GP2321%4.81
J. MiettinenCOA · 2 G in 6 GP · 6 GP2419%5.24

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Coachella Valley Firebirds vs Tucson Roadrunners?

The numbers side with Tucson Roadrunners (55%) on the road against Coachella Valley Firebirds, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

Coachella Valley Firebirds have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 2.4 and allowing 4.2 goals a game over that stretch. Tucson Roadrunners have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.8 and allowing 2.6 goals a game over that stretch.

Coachella Valley Firebirds sit 3rd in the Pacific Division, while Tucson Roadrunners sit 5th in the Pacific Division.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Coachella Valley Firebirds rate −0.03 and Tucson Roadrunners +0.18 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.21 goals to Tucson Roadrunners. Home ice is worth about -0.10 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Tucson Roadrunners 45% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 19%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

Our own lines for this game: Tucson Roadrunners −1.5 on the puck line (30%) and 6.5 total goals, with the under at 52% (6.4 projected).

Tucson Roadrunners to win, overtime and shootout included (55%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.