National League

Davos vs Bern prediction

Davos6–7–1 · Home Bern6–3–3 · Away05:45 PM UTCOct 23

58%win chance incl. overtime42%

Our pick

58%DAV58%DAV

Davos to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.74 · projected 3–2

Davos are the pick to win at 58%, with a projected final score of 3–2.

After 60 minutes

DAVDavos in 60'

46%

Tied → OTTied → OT

22%

BERBern in 60'

33%

Game flow

DAV 2.7 · BER 2.7 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.7–0.9

P2 · 1.0–0.8

P3 · 0.9–1.0

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Davos58%1.74
Regulation result (60 minutes)Davos46%2.19
Puck lineBern +1.569%1.46
Total goalsUnder 5.555%1.82
Both teams to scoreYes85%1.17

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Davos

58%fair 1.74

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Davos

46%fair 2.19

Puck line

Bern +1.5

69%fair 1.46

Total goals

Under 5.5

55%fair 1.82

Both teams to score

Yes

85%fair 1.17

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

F. ZadinaDAV · 6 G in 14 GP · 14 GP6529%3.49
R. AbolsBER · 6 G in 11 GP · 11 GP6629%3.50
B. LemieuxDAV · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4222%4.58
E. BemstromBER · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4321%4.73
D. RohrbachBER · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4019%5.38
V. NussbaumerDAV · 3 G in 9 GP · 9 GP3018%5.43
W. MerelaBER · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3318%5.47
F. AllardDAV · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3418%5.57
R. DionicioBER · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3217%5.85
T. KesslerDAV · 3 G in 14 GP · 14 GP3317%6.01

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Davos vs Bern?

Davos are the pick to win at 58%, with a projected final score of 3–2.

Davos sit 8th and Bern 7th, so the table separates them by little, but recent form points the other way. Bern have won 4 of their last 5 while scoring 2.6 and allowing 1.8 goals a game, a tighter profile than Davos, who have won 2 of their last 5 with 2.0 scored and 3.2 conceded. The one recent meeting between the teams went to Bern, 5–2 on 2026-09-18, which is the only head-to-head sample the numbers carry.

Once the opponents faced are accounted for, Bern come out slightly the better side, rated +0.11 goals per game against an average team to Davos's −0.12, an edge of 0.23 goals. That edge is exactly the size of the home-ice allowance in this league, about 0.23 goals a game, so the two effects cancel and leave the game close to level on neutral ground. That is why the model's regulation split is tight: Davos take 46% inside 60 minutes, with a 22% chance the game is tied after three periods and goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

The moneyline market, with the bookmaker margin stripped out across 9 bookmakers, prices Davos at 61%, a little above the model's 58% for the win including overtime and shootout. The market and the model therefore land on the same favourite, with the model only marginally more cautious about Davos. The projected 3–2 scoreline fits that reading: a one-goal home win that could easily have gone the other way, and one that leaves room for Bern's better recent form and their win in the latest meeting.

The projected 3–2 score sits right on the edge of the 5.5-goal line, and the numbers make the under a 55% play against a projected 5.6 goals, so the total is close to a coin flip with a slight lean to the under. On the puck line, Davos −1.5 comes in only 31% of the time on our numbers, which is consistent with a one-goal projection and with Bern's stronger adjusted rating. The moneyline is the cleaner side of this game, with Davos at 58% in the model and 61% in the market.

Davos to win, overtime and shootout included, at 58%, with a projected score of 3–2.