SHL

Luleå vs IF Björklöven prediction

Luleå4–5–2 · Home IF Björklöven6–5–0 · Away07:00 PMOct 29

61%win chance incl. overtime39%

Our pick

61%LUL61%LUL

Luleå to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.65 · projected 3–2

Our model makes Luleå 61% favourites at home against IF Björklöven, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

LULLuleå in 60'

50%

Tied → OTTied → OT

21%

BJÖIF Björklöven in 60'

30%

Game flow

LUL 2.9 · BJÖ 2.3 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.8–0.9

P2 · 1.0–0.9

P3 · 1.1–0.5

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Luleå61%1.65
Regulation result (60 minutes)Luleå50%2.01
Puck lineIF Björklöven +1.567%1.49
Total goalsUnder 5.560%1.68
Both teams to scoreYes85%1.18

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Luleå

61%fair 1.65

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Luleå

50%fair 2.01

Puck line

IF Björklöven +1.5

67%fair 1.49

Total goals

Under 5.5

60%fair 1.68

Both teams to score

Yes

85%fair 1.18

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

J. KoppanenLUL · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5225%4.02
V. PuustinenLUL · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4124%4.17
R. KovacsBJÖ · 5 G in 12 GP · 12 GP5121%4.78
M. NurmiLUL · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3220%4.98
F. ErikssonLUL · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3220%5.06
M. BromeLUL · 2 G in 6 GP · 6 GP2318%5.43
A. OttossonBJÖ · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3116%6.34
O. TellstromBJÖ · 3 G in 12 GP · 12 GP3115%6.49
A. LundinBJÖ · 2 G in 11 GP · 11 GP2114%7.39
T. RobinsBJÖ · 2 G in 11 GP · 11 GP2013%7.80

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Luleå vs IF Björklöven?

Our model makes Luleå 61% favourites at home against IF Björklöven, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

Luleå have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 2.2 and allowing 2.4 goals a game over that stretch. IF Björklöven have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 1.4 and allowing 3.8 goals a game over that stretch.

Luleå sit 10th, while IF Björklöven sit 6th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Luleå rate −0.07 and IF Björklöven −0.39 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.32 goals to Luleå. Home ice is worth about 0.30 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Luleå 50% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 21%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

Our own lines for this game: Luleå −1.5 on the puck line (33%) and 5.5 total goals, with the under at 60% (5.3 projected).

Luleå to win, overtime and shootout included (61%). Projected score: 3–2.