SHL

Luleå vs Djurgarden prediction

Luleå4–4–2 · Home Djurgarden4–5–2 · Away04:00 PM UTCOct 24

66%win chance incl. overtime34%

Our pick

66%LUL66%LUL

Luleå to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.52 · projected 3–2

Luleå are the pick at home against Djurgarden, with a 66% chance to win including overtime and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

LULLuleå in 60'

53%

Tied → OTTied → OT

22%

DJUDjurgarden in 60'

25%

Game flow

LUL 2.8 · DJU 2.1 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.7–0.6

P2 · 1.0–0.9

P3 · 1.2–0.7

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Luleå66%1.52
Regulation result (60 minutes)Luleå53%1.89
Puck lineDjurgarden +1.561%1.64
Total goalsUnder 5.560%1.68
Both teams to scoreYes82%1.21

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Luleå

66%fair 1.52

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Luleå

53%fair 1.89

Puck line

Djurgarden +1.5

61%fair 1.64

Total goals

Under 5.5

60%fair 1.68

Both teams to score

Yes

82%fair 1.21

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

J. KoppanenLUL · 5 G in 11 GP · 11 GP5225%4.07
V. PuustinenLUL · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4124%4.22
M. NurmiLUL · 3 G in 11 GP · 11 GP3220%5.04
F. ErikssonLUL · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3220%5.13
C. HudonDJU · 4 G in 10 GP · 10 GP4219%5.23
M. BromeLUL · 2 G in 6 GP · 6 GP2318%5.49
O. WahlstromDJU · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3216%6.31
S. HartmannDJU · 2 G in 5 GP · 5 GP2315%6.51
J. SnivelyDJU · 2 G in 11 GP · 11 GP2313%7.60
L. VejdemoDJU · 2 G in 10 GP · 10 GP2312%8.21

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Luleå vs Djurgarden?

Luleå are the pick at home against Djurgarden, with a 66% chance to win including overtime and a projected 3–2 score.

Luleå are favoured at home against Djurgarden, with a 66% chance to win that includes overtime and the shootout, and a projected 3–2 score. The table supports that: Luleå sit 8th and Djurgarden sit 12th. The ratings point the same way, with Luleå at −0.05 goals per game against an average team and Djurgarden at −0.35, an edge of 0.30 goals to Luleå before home ice is added.

Recent form is less flattering for the home side. Luleå have won 1 of their last 5, scoring 2.2 and allowing 2.4 goals a game over that stretch, while Djurgarden have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.6 and allowing 3.2. Djurgarden's case rests on that slightly better run and on the fact that this is a close matchup rather than a mismatch: about 22% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Luleå win it in regulation only 53% of the time on our numbers, with overtime and the shootout making up the rest of the 66%.

Home ice is worth about 0.39 goals a game in this league, and that is the main reason Luleå carry the edge despite the modest form line. The market reads the game the same way: once the bookmaker margin is removed, it prices Luleå at 67% on the moneyline across 7 bookmakers, essentially matching our 66%.

The projected 3–2 score sits below the 5.5 total line, and the under lands 60% against a projected 5.2 goals. On the puck line, Luleå −1.5 comes in 39% of the time on our numbers, so the model expects a one-goal margin more often than a clear win by two or more. With regulation wins at only 53% and overtime and the shootout accounting for the rest of the 66%, the spread is the less comfortable side of this game, while the total points toward a tighter, lower-scoring contest.

Luleå to win, overtime and shootout included (66%), with a projected 3–2 score.