NHL

Chicago Blackhawks vs Los Angeles Kings prediction

Chicago Blackhawks3–6–0 · Home Los Angeles Kings2–4–2 · Away08:00 PMOct 27

50%win chance incl. overtime50%

Our pick

50%LOS50%LOS

Los Angeles Kings to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.98 · projected 2–3

The numbers side with Los Angeles Kings (50%) on the road against Chicago Blackhawks, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

After 60 minutes

CHIChicago Blackhawks in 60'

39%

Tied → OTTied → OT

21%

LOSLos Angeles Kings in 60'

40%

Game flow

CHI 2.9 · LOS 3.0 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.9–1.0

P2 · 1.1–1.0

P3 · 1.0–1.0

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Los Angeles Kings50%1.98
Regulation result (60 minutes)Los Angeles Kings40%2.49
Puck lineChicago Blackhawks +1.575%1.34
Total goalsOver 5.554%1.85
Both teams to scoreYes90%1.11

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Los Angeles Kings

50%fair 1.98

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Los Angeles Kings

40%fair 2.49

Puck line

Chicago Blackhawks +1.5

75%fair 1.34

Total goals

Over 5.5

54%fair 1.85

Both teams to score

Yes

90%fair 1.11

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Lines

Lines from the last game · may change

Chicago Blackhawks

Last game: Oct 17

Forwards

1st line12 min together
80LWKantserovRoman 98CBedardConnor 88RWKanePatrick
2nd line9 min together
59LWBertuzziTyler 86CTeräväinenTeuvo 16RWFrondellAnton
3rd line8 min together
8LWDonatoRyan 91CNazarFrank 11RWMooreOliver
4th line6 min together
12LWGreenwayJordan 20CGreeneRyan 22RWSmithCole

Defence

1st pair14 min together
44DKaiserWyatt 55DLevshunovArtyom
2nd pair11 min together
72DVlasicAlex 28DColeIan
3rd pair12 min together
6DRinzelSam 38DMastroEthan Del

Goalies

Los Angeles Kings

Last game: Oct 22

Forwards

1st line14 min together
10LWPanarinArtemi 9CKempeAdrian 14RWLaferriereAlex
2nd line10 min together
56LWHaulaErik 47CLeeAndre 36RWZuccarelloMats
3rd line9 min together
12LWMooreTrevor 21CLaughtonScott 40RWArmiaJoel
4th line7 min together
25LWWrightJared 79CHeleniusSamuel 90RWPerryCorey

Defence

1st pair10 min together
64DGustafssonErik 92DClarkeBrandt
2nd pair15 min together
44DAndersonMikey 2DDumoulinBrian
3rd pair8 min together
8DDoughtyDrew 6DEdmundsonJoel

Goalies

How we read the lines: from the NHL’s shift charts, the three forwards and the two defencemen who shared the most 5-on-5 ice time, ranked by time on ice. Coaches shuffle lines often, so treat them as a guide until puck drop.

Connor Bedard: Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0; Patrick Kane: Lisa Gansky from New York, NY, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0; Tyler Bertuzzi: TheAHL, CC BY 2.0; Teuvo Teräväinen: Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0; Ryan Donato: Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0; Frank Nazar: Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Oliver Moore: Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Jordan Greenway: Surveytrevor, CC BY-SA 4.0; Wyatt Kaiser: Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Artyom Levshunov: Trevor Cokley (U.S. Air Force Academy), Public domain; Alex Vlasic: Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Ian Cole: Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 4.0; Sam Rinzel: SecretName101, CC BY 4.0; Ethan Del Mastro: TheAHL, CC BY 2.0; Artemi Panarin: Tlop2000, CC BY-SA 4.0; Adrian Kempe: Ryan Tanner, CC0; Alex Laferriere: Kenneth C. Zirkel, CC BY 4.0; Erik Haula: Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 4.0; Mats Zuccarello: Lillehammer 2016 Youth Olympic Games from Norway, CC BY 2.0; Trevor Moore: TheAHL, CC BY 2.0; Scott Laughton: Jessica, CC BY-SA 2.0; Joel Armia: mark6mauno, CC BY-SA 2.0; Samuel Helenius: Kaiser matias, CC BY-SA 4.0; Corey Perry: mark6mauno, CC BY-SA 2.0; Erik Gustafsson: Albin Olsson, CC BY-SA 3.0; Brandt Clarke: TheAHL, CC BY-SA 4.0; Mikey Anderson: All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0; Brian Dumoulin: Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 3.0; Drew Doughty: mark6mauno, CC BY-SA 2.0; Joel Edmundson: Michael Miller, CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Goalie duel

Projected

Projected from recent starts · confirmed at puck drop

Spencer Knight CHI

.888 save percentage

3.59 GAA · 3–4–0 · 7 starts

Anton Forsberg LOS

.883 save percentage

2.63 GAA · 0–1–1 · 2 starts

Back-up expected: second night of a back-to-back

Teams do not name their goalie before the game. We expect the No. 1 unless his team played the night before, when the back-up usually starts; last season that call was right about two times in three. Our win chances do not depend on it.

Photo credits: Spencer Knight: Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0; Anton Forsberg: Lisa Gansky from New York, NY, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

Artemi PanarinLOS · LW · 6 G in 8 GP · 8 GP6637%2.73
Roman KantserovCHI · RW · 3 G in 6 GP · 6 GP3325%4.01
Adrian KempeLOS · RW · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3523%4.26
Frank NazarCHI · C · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3223%4.33
Brandt ClarkeLOS · D · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2519%5.30
Teuvo TeräväinenCHI · C · 2 G in 7 GP · 7 GP2319%5.34
Ryan DonatoCHI · C · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2218%5.54
Alex LaferriereLOS · RW · 2 G in 8 GP · 8 GP2418%5.59
Tyler BertuzziCHI · LW · 2 G in 7 GP · 7 GP2318%5.62
Scott LaughtonLOS · C · 1 G in 5 GP · 5 GP1216%6.41

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits (9)

Artemi Panarin: Tlop2000, CC BY-SA 4.0; Adrian Kempe: Ryan Tanner, CC0; Frank Nazar: Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Brandt Clarke: TheAHL, CC BY-SA 4.0; Teuvo Teräväinen: Jenn G from Seattle, WA, CC BY-SA 2.0; Ryan Donato: Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0; Alex Laferriere: Kenneth C. Zirkel, CC BY 4.0; Tyler Bertuzzi: TheAHL, CC BY 2.0; Scott Laughton: Jessica, CC BY-SA 2.0 · Wikimedia Commons

All NHL goal scorer picks today

Who will win Chicago Blackhawks vs Los Angeles Kings?

The numbers side with Los Angeles Kings (50%) on the road against Chicago Blackhawks, with 3–2 the most likely final score.

Chicago Blackhawks have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.4 and allowing 3.8 goals a game over that stretch. Los Angeles Kings have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 2.2 and allowing 2.8 goals a game over that stretch.

Chicago Blackhawks sit 14th in the Western Conference, while Los Angeles Kings sit 13th in the Western Conference.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Chicago Blackhawks rate −0.46 and Los Angeles Kings −0.18 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.28 goals to Los Angeles Kings. Home ice is worth about 0.25 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Los Angeles Kings 40% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 21%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

Our own lines for this game: Los Angeles Kings −1.5 on the puck line (26%) and 5.5 total goals, with the over at 54% (6.1 projected).

Los Angeles Kings to win, overtime and shootout included (50%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.