Metal Ligaen

Esbjerg vs Herning Blue Fox prediction

Esbjerg7–4–2 · Home Herning Blue Fox11–0–1 · Away05:00 PM UTCOct 23

32%win chance incl. overtime68%

Our pick

68%HER68%HER

Herning Blue Fox to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.48 · projected 2–3

Herning Blue Fox are the pick to win on the road at 68%, with the model projecting a 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

ESBEsbjerg in 60'

24%

Tied → OTTied → OT

19%

HERHerning Blue Fox in 60'

57%

Game flow

ESB 2.7 · HER 3.4 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 1.0–1.3

P2 · 0.8–1.0

P3 · 0.9–1.1

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Herning Blue Fox68%1.48
Regulation result (60 minutes)Herning Blue Fox57%1.77
Puck lineEsbjerg +1.555%1.81
Total goalsUnder 6.552%1.92
Both teams to scoreYes89%1.13

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Herning Blue Fox

68%fair 1.48

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Herning Blue Fox

57%fair 1.77

Puck line

Esbjerg +1.5

55%fair 1.81

Total goals

Under 6.5

52%fair 1.92

Both teams to score

Yes

89%fair 1.13

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

O. KiljunenHER · 11 G in 12 GP · 12 GP11437%2.71
T. LajeunesseESB · 8 G in 11 GP · 11 GP8829%3.42
K. O'NeilHER · 6 G in 12 GP · 12 GP6525%3.95
M. PoulsenHER · 6 G in 12 GP · 12 GP6425%4.00
A. LindeHER · 6 G in 12 GP · 12 GP6325%4.05
N. WerbikESB · 6 G in 13 GP · 13 GP6523%4.27
Z. FranklinESB · 5 G in 13 GP · 13 GP5721%4.84
G. DowningESB · 4 G in 8 GP · 8 GP4220%4.97
J. DmytriwHER · 4 G in 12 GP · 12 GP4319%5.27
O. KjaerESB · 4 G in 13 GP · 13 GP4418%5.62

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Esbjerg vs Herning Blue Fox?

Herning Blue Fox are the pick to win on the road at 68%, with the model projecting a 3–2 final.

Herning Blue Fox arrive as the league's top side and the clear favourite here, and the model's 68% on the road, overtime and shootout included, reflects that. Their recent run is the strongest argument: five wins from five while scoring 4.8 and conceding just 1.8 per game. Esbjerg have taken three of their last five but have done so while giving up 3.4 goals a game, a leaky profile against this opponent.

The table lines up with the ratings. Esbjerg sit 3rd and Herning Blue Fox 1st, and once the opposition each side has faced is accounted for, the gap is stark: +0.11 goals per game for Esbjerg against an average team versus +0.98 for Herning Blue Fox, an edge of 0.87. Home ice is worth about 0.17 goals a game in this league, which narrows but does not close that margin.

The head-to-head offers little comfort to the hosts. The teams have met once recently, and Herning Blue Fox won it, the latest finishing 7–1 on 2026-08-28. In regulation the model gives Herning Blue Fox 57% to settle it inside 60 minutes and puts a tie after three periods at 19%, with overtime and a shootout to follow if needed. The market reads it the same way: once the bookmaker margin is removed, 9 bookmakers price Herning Blue Fox at 70% on the moneyline, close to our number.

Esbjerg's case rests on home ice and a scoring rate of 3.8 over their last five, enough to keep this competitive rather than comfortable. The projected 3–2 scoreline fits that reading: a one-goal game in which Herning Blue Fox's defensive record and superior adjusted rating do the deciding.

The projected 3–2 final sits just under the 6.5 total, and the under lands 52% on our numbers against a projected 6.3 goals, so the total is close to a coin flip. On the puck line, Herning Blue Fox −1.5 comes in 45% of the time, meaning the model expects the game to be decided by a single goal more often than not despite the favourite's 68% win probability.

Herning Blue Fox to win, overtime and shootout included, at 68%, with a projected 3–2 final.