Heilbronner Falken vs Erding prediction

Heilbronner Falken are the pick at home against Erding: a 56% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 4–3 score.

Heilbronner Falken have won 5 of their last 5, scoring 3.8 and allowing 2.2 goals a game over that stretch. Erding have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.0 and allowing 2.8 goals a game over that stretch.

Heilbronner Falken sit 4th, while Erding sit 6th.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Heilbronner Falken rate +0.29 and Erding +0.02 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.26 goals to Heilbronner Falken. Home ice is worth about 0.10 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Heilbronner Falken 47% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 18%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

Our own lines for this game: Heilbronner Falken −1.5 on the puck line (32%) and 6.5 total goals, with the over at 54% (6.8 projected).

Heilbronner Falken to win, overtime and shootout included (56%). Projected score: 4–3. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.