HOCKEYORA
NHL

San Jose Sharks vs Buffalo Sabres prediction

San Jose Sharks6–4–1 · HomeBuffalo Sabres4–4–2 · Away
57%win chance incl. overtime43%

Our pick

57%SAN

San Jose Sharks to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.75 · projected 3–2

Our model makes San Jose Sharks 57% favourites at home against Buffalo Sabres, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

SAN
47%
Tied → OT
20%
BUF
33%

Game flow

SAN 3.2 · BUF 2.8 expected goals in 60 minutes

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds
  • Moneyline (incl. overtime)San Jose Sharks57%1.75
  • Regulation result (60 minutes)San Jose Sharks47%2.14
  • Puck lineBuffalo Sabres +1.569%1.45
  • Total goalsOver 5.555%1.82
  • Both teams to scoreYes90%1.11

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Lines

Lines from the last game · may change

San Jose Sharks

Last game: Oct 22

Forwards

  1. 1st line8 min together
    2LWSmithWill71CCelebriniMacklin51RWGrafCollin
  2. 2nd line10 min together
    44LWSherwoodKiefer77CMisaMichael41RWStenbergIvar
  3. 3rd line7 min together
    23LWGoodrowBarclay10CDellandreaTy63RWOstapchukZack

Defence

  1. 1st pair16 min together
    65DTroubaJacob6DDickinsonSam
  2. 2nd pair14 min together
    25DNurseDarnell7DKesselringMichael
  3. 3rd pair13 min together
    9DOrlovDmitry5DAllanNolan

Goalies

Buffalo Sabres

Last game: Oct 21

Forwards

  1. 1st line9 min together
    6LWBensonZach
    86COstlundNoah
    22RWQuinnJack
  2. 2nd line9 min together
    20LWKulichJiri
    72CThompsonTage
    91RWDoanJosh
  3. 3rd line5 min together
    17LWZuckerJason
    9CNorrisJosh
    94RWHeleniusKonsta
  4. 4th line5 min together
    29LWMalenstynBeck
    71CMcLeodRyan
    19RWKrebsPeyton

Defence

  1. 1st pair15 min together
    26DDahlinRasmus
    23DSamuelssonMattias
  2. 2nd pair12 min together
    25DPowerOwen
    8DZellwegerOlen
  3. 3rd pair4 min together
    73DMetsaZach
    46DCrevierLouis

Goalies

  • 1ProjectedLuukkonenUkko-Pekka
  • 92BackupEllisC.

How we read the lines: from the NHL’s shift charts, the three forwards and the two defencemen who shared the most 5-on-5 ice time, ranked by time on ice. Coaches shuffle lines often, so treat them as a guide until puck drop.

Will Smith: Jesse Kornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0; Macklin Celebrini: Jesse Kornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0; Collin Graf: Jessekornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0; Kiefer Sherwood: Jesse Kornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0; Michael Misa: Jesse Kornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0; Ivar Stenberg: Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Barclay Goodrow: Jessekornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0; Ty Dellandrea: Jessekornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0; Zack Ostapchuk: Jesse Kornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0; Jacob Trouba: Stefan Brending ( 2eight ), CC BY-SA 3.0 de; Sam Dickinson: Jesse Kornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0; Darnell Nurse: All-Pro Reels, CC BY-SA 2.0; Michael Kesselring: Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Dmitry Orlov: Jesse Kornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Goalie duel

Projected

Projected from recent starts · confirmed at puck drop

Yaroslav Askarov SAN

.883 save percentage

3.43 GAA · 3–4–0 · 7 starts

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen BUF

.864 save percentage

3.53 GAA · 3–3–2 · 7 starts

Teams do not name their goalie before the game. We expect the No. 1 unless his team played the night before, when the back-up usually starts; last season that call was right about two times in three. Our win chances do not depend on it.

Photo credits: Yaroslav Askarov: Jessekornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included
PlayerChanceFair odds

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits: Macklin Celebrini: Jesse Kornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0; Tyler Toffoli: Jessekornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0; Ivar Stenberg: Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Mason Marchment: Jessekornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0; Will Smith: Jesse Kornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

All NHL goal scorer picks today

Who will win San Jose Sharks vs Buffalo Sabres?

Our model makes San Jose Sharks 57% favourites at home against Buffalo Sabres, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

San Jose Sharks have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 3.4 and allowing 2.8 goals a game over that stretch. Buffalo Sabres have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 3.4 and allowing 3.6 goals a game over that stretch.

San Jose Sharks sit 7th in the Western Conference, while Buffalo Sabres sit 13th in the Eastern Conference.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, San Jose Sharks rate −0.12 and Buffalo Sabres −0.32 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.20 goals to San Jose Sharks. Home ice is worth about 0.25 goals a game in this league.

About 20% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why San Jose Sharks win it in regulation only 47% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 57%.

Our own lines for this game: San Jose Sharks −1.5 on the puck line (31%) and 5.5 total goals, with the over at 55% (6.2 projected).

San Jose Sharks to win, overtime and shootout included (57%). Projected score: 3–2.

Team leaders

San Jose SharksThis seasonBuffalo Sabres

Season totals in this competition from the scoresheets so far (10 games per team); current squads only.

Photo credits: Macklin Celebrini: Jesse Kornblum, CC BY-SA 4.0; Jacob Trouba: Stefan Brending ( 2eight ), CC BY-SA 3.0 de · Wikimedia Commons

Recent form

San Jose Sharks

W6–2W4–3L1–3OTL3–4W3–2

Buffalo Sabres

L1–3OTL3–4W5–4OTL3–4W5–3

W win · OTL loss in overtime or a shootout · L loss in regulation

Head to head

No recent meetings on record.

Also scheduled

Other games that day