NHL

Carolina Hurricanes vs Boston Bruins prediction

Carolina Hurricanes8–2–2 · Home Boston Bruins8–2–1 · Away12:00 AM UTCOct 28

51%win chance incl. overtime49%

Our pick

51%CAR51%CAR

Carolina Hurricanes to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.97 · projected 3–2

Carolina Hurricanes are the pick at home against Boston Bruins: a 51% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

After 60 minutes

CARCarolina Hurricanes in 60'

41%

Tied → OTTied → OT

20%

BOSBoston Bruins in 60'

39%

Game flow

CAR 3.1 · BOS 3.0 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.8–0.9

P2 · 1.4–1.0

P3 · 0.9–1.0

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Carolina Hurricanes51%1.97
Regulation result (60 minutes)Carolina Hurricanes41%2.46
Puck lineBoston Bruins +1.574%1.35
Total goalsUnder 6.554%1.86
Both teams to scoreYes91%1.10

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Carolina Hurricanes

51%fair 1.97

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Carolina Hurricanes

41%fair 2.46

Puck line

Boston Bruins +1.5

74%fair 1.35

Total goals

Under 6.5

54%fair 1.86

Both teams to score

Yes

91%fair 1.10

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Lines

Lines from the last game · may change

Carolina Hurricanes

Last game: Oct 22

Forwards

1st line13 min together
28LWCarrierWilliam
20CAhoSebastian
37RWSvechnikovAndrei
2nd line12 min together
27LWEhlersNikolaj
22CStankovenLogan
53RWBlakeJackson
3rd line9 min together
48LWMartinookJordan
82CKotkaniemiJesperi
24RWJarvisSeth
4th line6 min together
50LWRobinsonEric
76CBrind'AmourSkyler
44RWDeslauriersNicolas

Defence

1st pair18 min together
19DMillerK'Andre
26DWalkerSean
2nd pair18 min together
74DSlavinJaccob
5DChatfieldJalen
3rd pair11 min together
4DGostisbehereShayne
8DValimakiJuuso

Goalies

32ProjectedBussiBrandon
52BackupKochetkovP.

Boston Bruins

Last game: Oct 22

Forwards

1st line13 min together
88LWPastrnakDavid 18CZachaPavel 10RWPeterkaJJ
2nd line12 min together
39LWGeekieMorgan 93CMintenFraser 92RWKhusnutdinovMarat
3rd line10 min together
11LWMittelstadtCasey 44CHagensJames 28RWLindholmElias
4th line9 min together
84LWJeannotTanner 47CKastelicMark 51RWPoitrasMatthew

Defence

1st pair17 min together
91DZadorovNikita 17DBorgenWill
2nd pair16 min together
27DLindholmHampus 73DMcAvoyCharlie
3rd pair16 min together
6DLohreiMason 42DBrunetFrederic

Goalies

How we read the lines: from the NHL’s shift charts, the three forwards and the two defencemen who shared the most 5-on-5 ice time, ranked by time on ice. Coaches shuffle lines often, so treat them as a guide until puck drop.

David Pastrnak: Bostonbruinsfan22, CC BY-SA 4.0; Pavel Zacha: Lisa Gansky from New York, NY, USA, CC BY-SA 2.0; JJ Peterka: Sandro Halank , Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Morgan Geekie: TheAHL, CC BY 2.0; Fraser Minten: Bardonvtn, CC BY 4.0; Casey Mittelstadt: CloutsnChara Sports Cards, CC BY 3.0; James Hagens: Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Elias Lindholm: Benjamin Reed, CC BY-SA 2.0; Tanner Jeannot: Jenn G, CC BY-SA 2.0; Matthew Poitras: Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Nikita Zadorov: m_kania, CC BY 2.0; Will Borgen: Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Hampus Lindholm: mark6mauno, CC BY-SA 2.0; Charlie McAvoy: CloutsnChara Sports Cards, CC BY 3.0; Mason Lohrei: Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Goalie duel

Projected

Projected from recent starts · confirmed at puck drop

Brandon Bussi CAR

.865 save percentage

3.27 GAA · 2–2–2 · 6 starts

Jeremy Swayman BOS

.928 save percentage

1.98 GAA · 6–1–1 · 1 shutout · 8 starts

Teams do not name their goalie before the game. We expect the No. 1 unless his team played the night before, when the back-up usually starts; last season that call was right about two times in three. Our win chances do not depend on it.

Photo credits: Jeremy Swayman: Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

David PastrnakBOS · RW · 6 G in 10 GP · 10 GP6929%3.46
L. StankovenCAR · 7 G in 11 GP · 11 GP7529%3.49
S. AhoCAR · 7 G in 12 GP · 12 GP7527%3.73
M. JankowskiCAR · 6 G in 9 GP · 9 GP6226%3.85
A. SvechnikovCAR · 6 G in 12 GP · 12 GP6325%4.07
Matthew PoitrasBOS · C · 4 G in 8 GP · 8 GP4522%4.46
Elias LindholmBOS · C · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4421%4.81
JJ PeterkaBOS · RW · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4320%5.06
Fraser MintenBOS · C · 4 G in 11 GP · 11 GP4319%5.18
N. EhlersCAR · 3 G in 10 GP · 10 GP3718%5.66

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Photo credits: David Pastrnak: Bostonbruinsfan22, CC BY-SA 4.0; Matthew Poitras: Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Elias Lindholm: Benjamin Reed, CC BY-SA 2.0; JJ Peterka: Sandro Halank , Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0; Fraser Minten: Bardonvtn, CC BY 4.0 · Wikimedia Commons

All NHL goal scorer picks today

Who will win Carolina Hurricanes vs Boston Bruins?

Carolina Hurricanes are the pick at home against Boston Bruins: a 51% chance to win, overtime included, and a projected 3–2 score.

Carolina Hurricanes have won 3 of their last 5, scoring 4.0 and allowing 3.2 goals a game over that stretch. Boston Bruins have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 4.4 and allowing 1.8 goals a game over that stretch.

Carolina Hurricanes sit 1st in the Eastern Conference, while Boston Bruins sit 2nd in the Eastern Conference.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Carolina Hurricanes rate +0.42 and Boston Bruins +0.61 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.20 goals to Boston Bruins. Home ice is worth about 0.25 goals a game in this league.

About 20% of games like this one are level after 60 minutes, which is why Carolina Hurricanes win it in regulation only 41% of the time on our numbers; overtime and the shootout make up the rest of the 51%.

Our own lines for this game: Carolina Hurricanes −1.5 on the puck line (26%) and 6.5 total goals, with the under at 54% (6.3 projected).

Carolina Hurricanes to win, overtime and shootout included (51%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.