AHL

Hershey Bears vs Belleville Senators prediction

Hershey Bears4–2–0 · Home Belleville Senators4–2–2 · Away07:00 PMOct 24

51%win chance incl. overtime49%

Our pick

51%HER51%HER

Hershey Bears to win

incl. overtime · fair odds 1.98 · projected 3–2

Our model makes Hershey Bears 51% favourites at home against Belleville Senators, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

After 60 minutes

HERHershey Bears in 60'

40%

Tied → OTTied → OT

21%

BELBelleville Senators in 60'

39%

Game flow

HER 3.0 · BEL 3.2 expected goals in 60 minutes

P1 · 0.9–0.8

P2 · 0.9–1.1

P3 · 1.2–1.3

Our model's expected goals for each side in regulation, split by period the way both teams' last ten games went (goals scored and allowed per period).

Markets

PickWin chanceFair odds

Moneyline (incl. overtime)Hershey Bears51%1.98
Regulation result (60 minutes)Hershey Bears40%2.50
Puck lineBelleville Senators +1.571%1.40
Total goalsOver 5.555%1.81
Both teams to scoreYes89%1.12

Moneyline (incl. overtime)

Hershey Bears

51%fair 1.98

Regulation result (60 minutes)

Hershey Bears

40%fair 2.50

Puck line

Belleville Senators +1.5

71%fair 1.40

Total goals

Over 5.5

55%fair 1.81

Both teams to score

Yes

89%fair 1.12

Probabilities come from a rating model fitted on this season's results; when bookmakers price the game they are blended with the market consensus.

Who scores

Anytime goal, overtime included

PlayerGPts L5ChanceFair odds

K. HalttunenBEL · 5 G in 6 GP · 6 GP5531%3.20
T. BoucherBEL · 3 G in 8 GP · 8 GP3423%4.34
P. TomasinoBEL · 3 G in 7 GP · 7 GP3522%4.47
S. BlaisBEL · 3 G in 7 GP · 7 GP3222%4.47
R. SuzukiBEL · 3 G in 7 GP · 7 GP3521%4.66

The chance that the player scores at least once, overtime included: his share of his team’s goals this season (recent games count more) times the goals we expect from his team. Tested on two NHL seasons. There is no lineup feed: a player who sits out keeps his row and counts as a miss.

Who will win Hershey Bears vs Belleville Senators?

Our model makes Hershey Bears 51% favourites at home against Belleville Senators, overtime and shootout included, and projects a 3–2 final.

Hershey Bears have won 4 of their last 5, scoring 3.4 and allowing 2.6 goals a game over that stretch. Belleville Senators have won 2 of their last 5, scoring 4.2 and allowing 3.8 goals a game over that stretch.

Hershey Bears sit 2nd in the Atlantic Division, while Belleville Senators sit 3rd in the North Division.

Adjusted for the opponents they have faced, Hershey Bears rate +0.03 and Belleville Senators +0.11 goals per game against an average team, an edge of 0.09 goals to Belleville Senators. Home ice is worth about -0.12 goals a game in this league.

In regulation the model gives Hershey Bears 40% to win inside 60 minutes and puts the chance of a tie after three periods at 21%; a tie goes to overtime and, if needed, a shootout.

The betting market agrees: once the bookmaker margin is removed it prices Hershey Bears at 52% on the moneyline across 7 bookmakers.

Against the market lines, Hershey Bears −1.5 on the puck line comes in 29% of the time on our numbers, and the over 5.5 goals lands 55% against a projected 6.4 goals.

Hershey Bears to win, overtime and shootout included (51%). Projected score: 3–2. It is close to a coin flip, so treat the lean with care.